- Kyle Schwarber has the shortest betting odds to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, but his Dinger Score actually puts him fifth on the board.
- Junior Caminero (+400) and Jac Caglianone (+750) are tied for the best Dinger Score in the field, which predicts Home Run Derby success based on Statcast batting metrics.
- This year’s Derby implements a new “swings” format instead of the clock, making Dinger Score an even more reliable model without a historical baseline for odds pricing.
PHILADELPHIA – A predictive model for Monday night’s MLB Home Run Derby shows that the betting odds and analytics are in disagreement, providing an opportunity for bettors to find value. Dinger Score, a tool created by Mike Petriello of MLB.com, gives bettors a new perspective on the odds and who truly can win the Home Run Derby .
Home Run Derby Odds
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) +310
- Junior Caminero (TB) +400
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) +525
- Bryce Harper (PHI) +700
- Jac Caglianone (KC) +750
- Jordan Walker (STL) +750
- Ben Rice (NYY) +900
- Willson Contreras (BOS) +1600
*Betting odds as of Monday, July 13, 11:00 AM EST
Dinger Score utilizes first-half Statcast batting metrics and previous Derby performances to create a predictive model for this year’s event . Some of the statistics considered include adjusted exit velocity, bat speed, exit velocity on pulled air balls only, and Blast per contact rate, which are all correlated with Derby success.
The field is graded on a 1-99 scale, with many top scorers like 2017 Aaron Judge (99), 2023 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (97), 2022 Juan Soto (81), and 2016 Giancarlo Stanton (80) going on to win the event. The dinger scores for the 2026 Home Run Derby field are as follows:
- 90 – Junior Caminero [tie]
- 90 – Jac Caglianone [tie]
- 86 – Jordan Walker
- 77 – Munetaka Murakami
- 76 – Kyle Schwarber
- 63 – Willson Contreras
- 49 – Bryce Harper
- 44 – Ben Rice
The average Dinger Score this year is 72, compared to just 54 last year. Ben Rice is this year’s lowest scorer at 44, but that would’ve made him the fourth-strongest competitor in 2024.
Bet Jac Caglianone’s Odds To Win Home Run Derby +750
Jac Caglianone has a surprisingly high Dinger Score for a guy with +750 odds at MLB betting sites, but his metrics show that he’s one of the best candidates EVER. Of this year’s field, Caglianone leads the way in adjusted exit velocity (98.1 mph), pulled air exit velocity (100.1 mph), and home run exit velocity (108.6 mph).
Junior Caminero (+400) leads the other two categories, bat speed (79.9 mph) and blast rate (25.9), but his +400 odds are nearly half of Caglianone’s +750 odds. Bryce Harper, who sits at +700 odds but has a 49 dinger score, further shows the disparity in predictive models and sports betting odds for tonight’s Derby.
HR Derby Odds vs. Dinger Score Breakdown
| Player | Betting Odds (Place) | Dinger Score (Place) | Round 1 HR Projection (Over Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | +310 (1) | 76 (5) | 10.5 HRs (-115) |
| Junior Caminero | +400 (2) | 90 (T-1) | 9.5 HR (-135) |
| Munetaka Murakami | +525 (3) | 77 (4) | 9.5 HRs (-110) |
| Bryce Harper | +700 (4) | 49 (7) | 8.5 HRs (-145) |
| Jordan Walker | +750 (T-5) | 86 (3) | 9.5 HRs (+110) |
| Jac Caglianone | +750 (T-5) | 90 (T-1) | 9.5 HRs (-115) |
| Ben Rice | +900 (7) | 44 (8) | 9.5 HRs (+110) |
| Willson Contreras | +1600 (8) | 63 (6) | 8.5 HRs (-120) |
Based on the comparison between the Dinger Score model and betting odds, it’s surprising to see six of eight players sitting within one home run of each other on Round 1 lines (8.5 HRs vs 9.5 HRs). The Dinger Score model shows a 46-point disparity between top performers Jac Caglianone and Junior Caminero at 90 compared to Ben Rice at 44.
Still, 44 is a respectable score for Rice and keeps him in the conversation compared to other years with players like 2019 Alex Bregman (1) and 2023 Adley Rutschman (1). Rice’s 9.5-homer projection in Round 1 is the same as Caglianone’s, albeit with different odds (+110 vs -115), meaning Rice’s under or Jac’s over could be sharp bets in the player prop markets.
This year’s Home Run Derby comes with a new format: no more clock but also not the former “outs” format, instead it’s swings. There is no bracket and no bonus round, so sportsbooks could also be mispricing this year’s event since the new format throws away the historical baseline.
