- Steve Erceg was -130 over Ramazan Temirov at BetOnline on July 16 and is -115 on UFC’s board.
- Dustin Jacoby drifted from -220 to -155 over Muhammad Said, the widest move toward an underdog on the card.
- Magomed Ankalaev’s main event hardened from -460 to -550 after Bogdan Guskov replaced an injured Khalil Rountree Jr.
ABU DHABI – BetOnline’s July 16 board has split since, with six favorites more expensive on UFC’s Wednesday board and five cheaper. Steve Erceg’s UFC Abu Dhabi co-main-event price has drifted from -130 at BetOnline on July 16 to -115 on UFC’s own board Wednesday, the closest two-way price on the 13-bout card.
The Co-Main Is The Only Two-Way Price Near Even Money
Erceg was -130 and Ramazan Temirov was +110 on BetOnline’s July 16 board, the tightest pair of the 12 bouts the book priced. UFC’s event page for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov listed the flyweight bout at Erceg -115 and Temirov -105 on Wednesday, without naming a sportsbook.
That is a move of about three points of implied probability. A -130 price implies roughly 56.5 percent; -115 implies about 53.5 percent. Nothing about the matchup changed in those six days. What changed is what a ticket on Erceg pays.
The read underneath it is a sample-size argument. Erceg is 14-4, ranked No. 10 at flyweight, and has attempted 1,164 significant strikes across a UFC run that includes a five-round title loss to Alexandre Pantoja and a unanimous decision over Tim Elliott on May 2.
Temirov is 19-3 on an 11-fight winning streak and 2-0 inside the promotion. His entire UFC striking sample is 194 attempts, roughly a sixth of Erceg’s, and he has not fought since March 1, 2025, having served a 12-month anti-doping suspension in the interim. The market is pricing a résumé against a streak, and it has stopped favoring the résumé.
Jacoby-Said Is The Widest Move Toward An Underdog
Dustin Jacoby was -220 over Muhammad Said at BetOnline on July 16, with Said +185. UFC’s board Wednesday showed Jacoby -155 and Said +130. Said went from a price implying about 35 percent to one implying about 43 percent in a light heavyweight prelim.
Jacoby is not alone. Five of the 12 favorites BetOnline priced are cheaper on the Wednesday board and six are more expensive, with Ismael Bonfim and Axel Sola unchanged. The second-biggest move toward an underdog on the UFC betting card belongs to Valter Walker, who went from -255 over Thomas Petersen to -185.
The Cheapest Two-Way Markets Are In The Middle Of The Card
Kuniev-Fortune summed to 103.2 percent on July 16 and Aliev-Davis to 103.5, the two cheapest markets of the 12. Hussein-Gibson summed to 105.0 percent and Tuchalov-Ribeiro to 104.8, the two most expensive.
The tendency runs with the chalk without being clean. The five bouts priced at -400 or shorter averaged 4.5 percent hold, the other seven 3.7 percent. But six markets were cheaper to enter than the Ankalaev main event, and Erceg-Temirov, the closest price on the board, was the fifth most expensive at 4.1 percent.
Nearly two points of hold separate Kuniev-Fortune from Hussein-Gibson, the widest gap on the board and the reason a card gets priced side by side across legal sports betting books.
Aliev Shortened From -150 To -205 As The Chalk Got Dearer
Nurullo Aliev was the second-closest price on the July 16 board at -150 over Mike Davis. UFC’s board Wednesday had him at -205, with Davis out to +170. A -150 price implies about 60 percent and -205 about 67 percent, so the cost of backing Aliev rose by roughly seven points of implied probability in six days.
Aliev is 11-0 with nine of those wins by decision, defends 80 percent of takedowns and absorbs 1.63 significant strikes per minute, a profile built on control rather than finishes. Davis is 12-3 with eight knockout wins and stopped Mitch Ramirez in the second round in July 2025, the opposite profile.
The heaviest chalk mostly moved the same way. Islam Dulatov went from -700 to -900, Magomed Tuchalov from -600 to -750 and Abdul Hussein from -400 to -450. Sam Patterson was the exception, easing from -425 to -400 over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
