- Nick Martinez gets the nod on Tuesday against the Blue Jays, having only walked one batter across his last five starts.
- While the bet for under 0.5 walks (+155) is a tough ask, there is more value on over 3.5 strikeouts for -105 odds.
TAMPA, Fla. – Nick Martinez has quietly put together one of the strongest seasons of his career, and Tuesday’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays presents bettors with opportunities to back the Tampa Bay right-hander.
Martinez enters Tuesday 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 23 starts. His 12 victories are tied for seventh in the majors, while his ERA ranks 11th. More importantly for bettors, Martinez has consistently given Tampa Bay length, reaching at least six innings in four of his last five starts.
That reliability is especially valuable with the Rays listed as -134 moneyline favorites on legal sports betting sites and the first-five run line sitting at Tampa Bay -0.5 (+110). Martinez has demonstrated that he can keep games under control even when he allows contact.
His recent results illustrate that perfectly. Martinez has allowed four runs against Oakland, zero against Colorado, six against Chicago, zero against Cleveland and one against Toronto across his last five starts. He has surrendered 31 hits during that span, but only 11 earned runs, demonstrating the difference between allowing baserunners and actually giving opponents crooked numbers.
Control has also been one of Martinez’s biggest strengths. He has walked just one batter across his last five starts and has posted zero walks in four of those five outings. That makes his Under 0.5 walks (+155) prop particularly interesting for bettors willing to embrace the variance of a single free pass deciding the wager.
What Nick Martinez Bet To Take
The strikeout market is set at 3.5, with Martinez’s Over priced at -105. He has recorded at least four strikeouts in three of his last five starts, including five against both Cleveland and Oakland. While he isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, his ability to consistently work six-plus innings gives him a strong path to clearing a modest 3.5-strikeout number.
Toronto’s career numbers against Martinez provide the primary reason for caution. Blue Jays hitters are a combined 21-for-68 (.309) against him, although they’ve produced only three home runs. George Springer has done the most damage, going 8-for-19 with two homers however the heavy majority of these numbers come from the 2017 season.
Martinez’s current 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are far better than his career marks, and the 2026 version has been substantially more effective at preventing runs. Just completing nine innings against Oakland last week, he allowed four runs while striking out five.
With the full-game total at 7.5 runs, the market expects a relatively tight scoring environment. That setup favors a pitcher who has been exceptionally good at limiting walks and preventing runs despite allowing some contact.
For MLB betting, look to back Martinez, as the strongest angles are his Over 3.5 strikeouts (-105) and Tampa Bay’s first-five moneyline at +110 odds. The Rays’ -134 full-game price is less attractive, but Martinez’s current form gives Tampa Bay a legitimate pitching advantage.
