- Anthony Hernandez is -183 to beat Gregory Rodrigues, a price that implies about 65%.
- Hernandez has won eight of his last nine fights, with nine of his 15 career wins by submission.
- Rodrigues owns 12 knockout wins and has averaged a knockdown per 15 minutes in the UFC.
- The round total sits at 2.5, with the under priced -120 and the over -110.
SACRAMENTO – Anthony Hernandez is -183 at Bovada to beat Gregory Rodrigues in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event at Golden 1 Center, a price that implies about 65% for the No. 6 middleweight against the No. 11 contender. The Hernandez vs Rodrigues card runs 13 fights deep.
The Grappler Holds The Short Price
Hernandez, 15-3, has won eight of his last nine, and the -183 asks $183 of risk for every $100 of profit. The number is built on his wrestling. UFC lists him at 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, nearly two per round, with 1.63 submission attempts over the same span. Nine of his 15 wins ended in a submission and 12 ended inside the distance.
His 61% striking accuracy reads elite, and it is inflated the way grapplers’ numbers usually are. Much of that output lands from top position against a pinned opponent, which is exactly where his price expects this fight to go.
Rodrigues Sits One Knockout Off The Record
Rodrigues, 19-6, has won six of his last seven. Twelve of his 19 wins came by knockout, and his seven finishes by knockout inside the UFC sit one behind the shared middleweight record. He lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and has scored 1.01 knockdowns per 15 minutes, roughly one for every fight-length stretch he spends in the cage.
The +158 pays $158 on a $100 bet, an implied 39%. The soft spot in his profile is defense. He stops 51% of the significant strikes thrown at him, so nearly half get through, and every exchange he wins standing still leaves the level change open. Whether his power finds Hernandez before the wrestling takes over is the whole market.
The Book Prices A Finish
The round total sits at 2.5, with the under at -120 implying about 55% against the over at -110. The lean is small but earned. The two men have finished 27 of their 34 combined wins, a 79% clip, and neither profile suggests 25 quiet minutes.
Six more fights carry notable prices on the board.
| Fight | Moneylines |
|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues | -183 / +158 |
| Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze | -400 / +315 |
| Vitor Petrino vs. Sergey Spivak | -142 / +122 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu | -138 / +117 |
| Mason Jones vs. Marquel Mederos | -310 / +255 |
| Nasrat Haqparast vs. Chris Padilla | -115 / -105 |
Reinier de Ridder is -400 against Roman Dolidze, a price that implies 80%. Deeper on the card, Anthony Wint is -1100 over Terrance Chatman, the steepest number of the night. Haqparast against Padilla is priced closest to a coin flip, -115 and -105, and the full 13-fight board is posted at legal UFC betting sites headed by Bovada.
Sacramento gives online sports betting boards their only live UFC card until Aug. 29, when the octagon moves to China for Umar Nurmagomedov against Song Yadong.
