- Schwarber is +235 to homer Friday after hitting 37 home runs in 122 games, a homer in 24.6 percent of his games.
- Walker is +475 to homer after 26 home runs in 125 games, a 20.8 percent rate that clears what his odds ask.
- Walker beat Schwarber 12-11 in the Derby final on July 13 with four straight homers on his last ball.
- Philadelphia is -280 on the moneyline with Jesús Luzardo starting against Hunter Dobbins, and the total is 8.
PHILADELPHIA – Kyle Schwarber is +235 to homer on his bobblehead night Friday at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals and Jordan Walker, the hitter who beat him 12-11 in the Home Run Derby final on the same field nearly six weeks ago.
Schwarber Bobblehead Night Is The Main Story, The Derby Is The Grudge
The Phillies hand fans a Wawa-branded Schwarber bobblehead at Friday’s 6:40 p.m. game. The opponent makes it a story.
Walker took the Derby on this field on July 13, reaching his final swing at eight homers against Schwarber’s 11 and hitting four straight on his last ball in front of a Philadelphia crowd, and Schwarber finished runner-up at his home park. Walker is the first Cardinal to win the event. The site’s Home Run Derby odds and models story that morning had Walker at +750 against Schwarber’s +310 while its model rated Walker third in the field, and the model side got him right.
The gap between the two Derby finalists runs the wrong way for the favorite. Schwarber’s +235 at legal sports betting sites needs him to homer in roughly three of every 10 games to pay for itself, and his season rate sits under one in four, so the ticket pays for the 37 homers and the occasion, not for an edge.
Walker’s +475 needs a homer about once every 5.8 games, and he has delivered one every 4.8 games, a margin that survives a bad week. Harper at +410 sits within a point of his season rate, a fair number with nothing in it either way. Burleson at +800 is the cheapest of the four relative to his rate, with a 14.8 percent season clip against an 11.1 percent ask.
The Pitching Matchups
Hunter Dobbins is on the mound tonight for the Cardinals, which further makes Kyle Schwarber a great bet to hit a home run at MLB betting sites tonight. The leadoff man for Philadelphia has one hit and two walks in three plate appearances against Dobbins. The Cardinals starter has allowed four home runs over his last four appearances and has a difficult task ahead during Schwarber’s bobblehead giveaway night.
Jordan Walker does not have as favorable a matchup in this game but still gets to go against a left-handed pitcher. Walker has two hits in eight career at-bats vs. Jesus Luzardo. This season, Luzardo has given up 12 total home runs, and 11 of them came against right-handed batters. Walker has a .918 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
