- Seth Lugo has allowed at least three runs in four straight starts, including five runs in three of them.
- Max Scherzer, 42, carries a 7.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, and has averaged barely four innings per start.
- The total in Toronto is 8.5, with the over priced -120 at Bovada and -122 at BetOnline.
- Toronto is -125 to -133 on the moneyline against a 58-74 Kansas City club.
TORONTO — Seth Lugo has allowed at least three runs in four straight starts and faces 42-year-old Max Scherzer, carrying a 7.40 ERA, when the Kansas City Royals visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night, and the over 8.5 sits at -120 at Bovada and -122 at BetOnline.
Lugo’s Month Has Fed The Number
Lugo, Kansas City’s listed starter Tuesday, gave up five runs to the Athletics on Aug. 19, five to the Angels on Aug. 14, three to the Cubs on Aug. 8 and five to the Rockies on Aug. 2, pushing his season ERA to 4.71 with a 1.38 WHIP.
That is a full month without a clean start, and the traffic behind the 1.38 WHIP means the damage has come from sustained contact, not one blowup inning. For the total, a starter conceding five runs in three of four outings does most of the work toward 8.5 on his own, and the MLB betting board prices Tuesday’s matchup accordingly.
Scherzer’s Short Starts Do The Rest
Scherzer is 1-6 with the 7.40 ERA across 11 starts, and his 45 innings in those 11 outings work out to just over four per start. At home the line is worse, an 8.33 ERA over seven starts.
A starter who averages four innings hands five innings a night to the bullpen, so the over case does not end when Scherzer leaves; it extends into whatever Toronto runs out behind him. The 64-68 Blue Jays are still favored, a read on the lineup gap between the clubs rather than on their starter.
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 8.5 | -120 Bovada / -122 BetOnline |
| Total | Under 8.5 | +100 Bovada / +102 BetOnline |
| Moneyline | Blue Jays | -133 Bovada / -125 BetOnline |
| Moneyline | Royals | +111 Bovada / +113 BetOnline |
The Over Now Comes At A Tax
The form supports the over, and the price shows the books read the same game logs everyone else did. An over sitting at -120 and -122 against a plus-money under means the market has already leaned onto the side the pitching argues for.
There is no discount on offer; what remains is a sound side at a full price. With both of these starters, 8.5 is the right total to attack, and the juice is the cost of attacking it. Legal sports betting sites carry the game lines through first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET.
