- Nurmagomedov is a -700 favorite over Song Yadong at Bovada in Saturday’s UFC Shanghai main event.
- Bovada prices Nurmagomedov to win by decision at -180, by submission at +425 and by knockout at +750.
- Nurmagomedov has finished seven of his 20 career wins by submission, but Song has never been tapped in 34 professional fights.
- Song rebounded from a decision loss to Sean O’Malley by submitting Deiveson Figueiredo in Macau in May.
SHANGHAI – Umar Nurmagomedov is a -700 favorite over Song Yadong at Bovada for Saturday’s UFC Shanghai main event, a price that implies close to 88% and leaves his method-of-victory props as the cheaper way to back him.
The Favorite’s Price Asks For Certainty
Nurmagomedov, 20-1 and ranked No. 3 at bantamweight, faces Song, 23-9-1 and No. 6, and the -700 asks $700 of risk for every $100 of profit to cash the moneyline outright. Bovada’s own fight props back the idea that the money is safer than the outright number suggests. The total sits at 4.5 rounds with the over priced at -225, and a straight bet on the fight going the distance is -220.
Saturday’s card carries no belt (the two are ranked, not champions), but UFC frames the winner as next in line once Petr Yan defends the bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in their Oct. 24 trilogy, the same title Nurmagomedov’s lone loss came chasing last year.
Where The Book Backs His Own History
Nurmagomedov’s method-of-victory props line up close to his career splits. He has closed 11 of his 20 wins by decision, seven by submission and two by knockout, and Bovada’s board (decision at -180, submission at +425, knockout at +750) tracks that same order. The knockout price is nearly a match for his 10% finish rate by strikes, and it sits as the longest of his three paths for a reason – two finishes by strikes in 20 wins is a thin sample to back.
The decision price runs shorter than his raw 55% decision rate on its own would suggest, and Song’s resume explains the gap. None of Song’s nine losses across 34 professional fights has come by submission, and his last two appearances both went deep – a decision loss to Sean O’Malley in January, then a second-round submission of Deiveson Figueiredo in May.
That submission of Figueiredo came four months after Figueiredo lost a decision to Nurmagomedov himself. A fighter who has never been tapped is not the target Nurmagomedov’s submission rate alone would promise, which is exactly why the book leans harder on the cards than his history does.
The Prop Board
| Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nurmagomedov by decision | -180 |
| Nurmagomedov by submission | +425 |
| Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO | +750 |
| Song by decision | +900 |
| Song by submission | +2800 |
| Song by KO/TKO | +750 |
The Payoff For Getting It Right
A Nurmagomedov win keeps his two-fight run since the Dvalishvili title loss alive and sets up a second title shot once the Yan-Dvalishvili trilogy is settled. For Song, ranked sixth after his own bounce-back submission win in Macau, an upset in Shanghai would be his first win over a top-three opponent and reopen the same title picture from the other side.
It’s the first live card for legal sports betting sites since UFC’s Aug. 22 Sacramento card, and the last one on the legal UFC betting calendar before Yan and Dvalishvili settle the belt itself in October.
