- Pete Alonso is +220 to homer at Coors Field, the highest park index in baseball.
- Kyle Schwarber is +280 to go deep against Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt at Chase Field.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. is +265, San Diego’s shortest home run price against Cincinnati starter Brady Singer.
- Colorado starter Tanner Gordon has allowed less contact damage this season than his own Statcast numbers suggest he should.
DENVER – Pete Alonso is +220 at Bovada to hit a home run Monday night at Coors Field, where a Statcast park factor of 112 makes Colorado’s ballpark the biggest offensive boost of any stadium in baseball.
Alonso Brings O’s Best Power To The Best Hitters Park
Pete Alonso left the Mets for a five-year, $155 million deal with the Orioles this past offseason and leads Baltimore with 32 home runs, an elite 13.9% barrel rate and a 56.8% hard-hit rate. Colorado starter Tanner Gordon has held hitters to a .272 wOBA this season even though the contact they’ve made against him works out to a .323 expected mark, according to Baseball Savant. A 51-point gap that wide tends to close as the underlying contact quality catches up with the results, and Coors Field’s 112 index gives it room to close through the fence for anyone tracking legal sports betting boards tonight.
Schwarber’s Price Matches His Power At Chase Field
Kyle Schwarber carries the shortest home run price on Philadelphia’s roster at +280, ahead of Bryce Harper’s +475, as the Phillies visit Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Schwarber has 40 home runs this season on a .283 isolated-power mark and a 17.4% barrel rate that ranks among the top five in MLB. Pfaadt’s own Statcast profile lines up with his results almost exactly, so nothing about his season points to a letdown on the mound. Schwarber’s swing is productive enough on its own to make him the board’s favorite in this matchup.
Tatis Draws a Pitcher Who Has Matched His Rough Results
Fernando Tatis Jr. is San Diego’s shortest price at +265 to homer against Cincinnati’s Brady Singer, who carries a 4.72 ERA and a .345 expected weighted on-base mark allowed, both worse than league average. Unlike Gordon, Singer’s results have tracked his contact quality closely all season, so his struggles are not a fluke of bad luck. Tatis’s own expected slugging mark of .485 sits well above his actual .439, a gap that reflects harder contact than his 17 home runs this season show.
