- NFL MVP odds for the 2026-27 season put Josh Allen a cut above the rest (+675), but there are three quarterbacks with value to challenge the 2024 MVP.
- Joe Burrow (+925) sits third behind Allen and Lamar Jackson (+875) on a Cincinnati Bengals team expected to win 10+ games next season.
- Justin Herbert (+1100) and Caleb Williams (+1400) are intriguing options with odds north of +1000 in high-powered offenses.
LOS ANGELES – While Josh Allen is the consensus NFL MVP favorite at +675, there’s value on other quarterbacks with nearly double his odds. Two-time Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow has +925 odds to win the 2026 NFL MVP award.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
- Josh Allen +675
- Lamar Jackson +875
- Joe Burrow +925
- Drake Maye +1100
- Justin Herbert +1100
- Caleb Williams +1400
- Patrick Mahomes +1400
- Dak Prescott +1500
- Matthew Stafford +1500
- Brock Purdy +1800
The case for Burrow is simple: stay healthy and win games. Burrow led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2024, but finished fourth in MVP voting due to the Bengals’ 9-8 record.
He missed weeks 3-12 last season, but averaged 270 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns across the final six games of the season. Cincinnati overhauled their defense that allowed a league-worst 28.9 points per game in 2025, adding Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe on the line plus experienced secondary upgrades with Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger.
Assuming Burrow remains healthy throughout the 2026 campaign, an improved defense with his offensive weapons gives hope to the +925 legal sports betting odds for a Burrow MVP run in 2026.
Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams Primed For Big Seasons
The next 2026 NFL MVP candidate is Justin Herbert, who has +1100 odds to win the first Chargers MVP since LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006. While Los Angeles did lose newly-signed center Tyler Biadasz for the season, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt enter the season healthy.
Herbert showcased his talent with his 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign and now has his best ever offensive line and a new offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel. McDaniel ran the second-most offensive snaps with motion (73%) during his four years with the Miami Dolphins, and Justin Herbert had the best QBR in 2025 when using pre-snap motion.
With notable downfield threats in Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, the Chargers offense is set to make plenty of big plays. The return of a healthy Omarion Hampton after an impressive rookie season will only help Herbert downfield, which was already put on display in the NFL Preseason. His +1100 California sports betting odds are worth a shot in an exciting Chargers offense.
Justin Herbet LAUNCHES it to Quentin Johnston for a 65-yard TD 🎯
— NFL (@NFL) August 28, 2026
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/h1wr48fiC4
Caleb Williams comes with the longest odds of anyone mentioned so far (+1400), but he’s come a long way since his rookie season. Williams led the Chicago Bears to an 11-6 record in Ben Johnson’s first year as head coach and averaged 25.9 points per game.
He threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns, adding 388 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in 2025. Caleb’s biggest fault was his 58.1% completion percentage, but has plenty of opportunity to improve that part of his game with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland as his top targets.
The last 10 winners of the NFL MVP were all quarterbacks that led their teams to at least 11 wins. That hurts Caleb Williams chances, as the Bears have +125 odds to win 10+ games this season, but there’s plenty of reason to be excited about Chicago’s offense in 2026.
| Quarterback (MVP Odds) | Projected Season Passing Yards Total (Over/Under) | Projected Season Passing Touchdowns Total (Over/Under) | Team Total (Over Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 3975.5 Passing Yards (-115/-115) | 32.5 Passing TDs (-115/-115) | 10.5 Wins (+105) |
| Caleb Williams | 3600.5 Passing Yards (-120/-110) | 24.5 Passing TDs (-110/-120) | 9.5 Wins (+125) |
| Justin Herbert | 3650.5 Passing Yards (+100/-115) | 25.5 Passing TDs (-105/-125) | 9.5 Wins (-140) |
Josh Allen has slightly lower passing projections than all three MVP dark horses, but he makes up for it with his ridiculous rushing advantage. Allen projects for 11.5 rushing touchdowns and 500 rushing yards, while most NFL betting sites don’t offer season long rushing props for Burrow, Herbert, or Williams.
