- Bovada prices Andres Gimenez at 1.5 total bases for his 28th birthday game, with the over paying +155.
- Gimenez has cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last 14 games, batting .265 with two doubles.
- Royals starter Daniel Lynch IV strikes out 6.71 batters per nine while holding hitters to a .202 average.
- Kauffman Stadium’s fences moved in up to 10 feet this season, and the park is playing just above neutral.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Andres Gimenez turns 28 on Friday night at Kauffman Stadium, where the Toronto Blue Jays open a series against Kansas City Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch IV. Bovada is paying +155 on the over on his 1.5 total bases line.
The Longest Over On The Board
No Toronto or Kansas City starter carries a longer over price on the MLB betting board’s total bases market. Bobby Witt Jr.’s over 1.5 is -125, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s is -115, and Gimenez sits at +155 alongside Nathan Lukes at the bottom of the board.
| Player | Line | Over Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | -125 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | -115 |
| George Springer | 1.5 | -105 |
| Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | -110 |
| Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +155 |
| Andres Gimenez | 1.5 | +155 |
A $100 over ticket returns $155 in profit on any two-base night, and the bet breaks even landing about two times in five. Gimenez has cleared the number four times in his last 14 games, a pace that runs short of what +155 asks. The under is the side Bovada protects at -210, and that gap is the book saying plainly that one base is his normal night.
Mostly Singles, And Steals Do Not Count
Gimenez is hitting .243/.288/.354 with 71 singles among his 100 hits, and his 146 total bases across 131 games work out to about 1.1 a night. His .112 isolated power sits well under the .150 league average. The 20 stolen bases never touch this ticket, because total bases pays on hits alone, so the speed matters only when it beats out an infield grounder.
The recent stretch is the same profile in miniature. He went 13-for-49 (.265) over the 14 games with two doubles and nothing bigger, and the contact quality backs the shape of it. Per Baseball Savant, his 85.7 mph average exit velocity, 25 percent hard-hit rate and 3.4 percent barrel rate all sit near the bottom of the league.
What keeps the over alive at all is volume. An 87-strikeout season across 447 plate appearances is a rate below league average, so the ball goes in play nearly every trip.
Moved-In Fences, A Lefty Who Pounds The Zone
The Royals moved Kauffman Stadium’s fences in eight to 10 feet this season and lowered the walls to 8.5 feet everywhere but center field, stadium adjustments that affect Bobby Witt Jr. props more than anyone else’s.
The help flows to fly-ball power, not to a 3.4 percent barrel bat, and the park is playing just above neutral. For this prop the fences change little. Two singles remain the likelier route to two bases than one ball into the moved-in gaps.
Lynch cuts both ways for the over. The lefty is 4-4 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, and he holds hitters to a .202 average, so hits are scarce against him. He also strikes out just 6.71 per nine, well under the league rate, which feeds a contact hitter’s chances of stringing singles. The matchup is lefty on lefty, the harder side of the platoon for Gimenez, and the price already carries all of that.
The 70-71 Blue Jays and 63-78 Royals open the series Friday, one of 16 games on the day’s legal sports betting slate. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is 8:10 p.m. Eastern.
