- Tampa Bay has outscored Atlanta 14-3 through the first two games and goes for the sweep Thursday afternoon.
- Braves starter Martín Pérez has lost three straight decisions, posting a 4.91 ERA over his last four outings.
- Rays starter Nick Martinez brings a 14-4 record and a 3.04 ERA into the last game of the set.
- Atlanta is a -119 moneyline favorite at Bovada despite the two-game skid and the tougher arm on the mound.
ATLANTA – One more win Thursday afternoon at Truist Park completes a Tampa Bay Rays sweep of the Atlanta Braves, and Tampa Bay hands the ball to 14-4 right-hander Nick Martinez. Atlanta counters with Martín Pérez, loser of three straight decisions.
A Sweep In Reach
Tampa Bay took the opener 7-1 on Tuesday and followed with a 7-2 win Wednesday, a 14-3 scoring margin across the two games.
The stakes go beyond one series. Tampa Bay, at 87-58, owns the American League’s best record. Atlanta, 85-61 and first in the NL East, trails Milwaukee and Los Angeles in the race for one of the NL’s two first-round byes, the same two clubs the NL pennant race had already narrowed to in August. Roughly two weeks remain for either mark to move on the boards tracked across legal sports betting sites.
Pérez Searching For A Fix
Pérez has lost three straight decisions, posting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP, nearly two baserunners an inning, over his last four starts. His most recent turn, against Philadelphia, lasted 3 2/3 innings and cost him four runs on seven hits. His full-season line is still solid, 8-9 with a 3.25 ERA and 94 strikeouts across 124 2/3 innings, and Thursday marks his 24th start of the year.
Martinez Still Rolling
Martinez has anchored the Tampa Bay rotation all year, going 14-4 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP across 27 starts. His last stumble came Aug. 18 in Toronto, where he lasted just 3 2/3 innings. He has since gone at least six innings in three straight starts while allowing three earned runs or fewer in each, including six scoreless innings on one hit against Baltimore.
The Board Still Likes The Home Team
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta | -119 |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay | -101 |
| Run line | Atlanta -1.5 | +175 |
| Run line | Tampa Bay +1.5 | -210 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
| Total | Under 8.5 | -115 |
Atlanta is the moneyline favorite at -119 for the finale. That price is short for a team that has lost two straight and is turning to the pitcher with the worse recent form. It reads as home-park support more than a form-based number, and it makes backing Atlanta cost more than the recent evidence on either arm suggests it should.
A sweep pads Tampa Bay’s American League-best record as the stretch run tightens. A Braves win snaps the skid and keeps Atlanta within range of Milwaukee and Los Angeles for the NL’s other bye spot, the race that will keep shaping legal MLB betting boards into the season’s final weeks.
