- Edmonton’s power play led the NHL at 30.6% last season, and Vancouver’s penalty kill ranked last at 71.5%.
- Connor McDavid props fit the mismatch, since he recorded a point on 54 of Edmonton’s 68 power-play goals last season.
- Edmonton is -310 on the moneyline and -125 on the puck line, with the total at 6.5 goals.
- Both benches are new, Mike Babcock in Edmonton and Manny Malhotra in Vancouver, so last season’s special-teams rates came under different coaches.
EDMONTON, Alberta – Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers’ league-best power play meet the NHL’s worst penalty kill Tuesday, when the Oilers host the Vancouver Canucks in the 2026-27 opener at Rogers Place, with puck drop at 10 p.m. Eastern. That mismatch is the case for McDavid props over the moneyline, because he recorded a point on 54 of Edmonton’s 68 power-play goals last season.
League-Best Power Play, League-Worst Kill
Edmonton’s power play led the NHL at 30.6% last season, scoring 68 times on 222 chances. That is 0.83 goals a game against a league average of 0.61.
Vancouver’s penalty kill, at 71.5%, sat last in the league and 7.4 points under the 78.9% average. The Canucks allowed 65 power-play goals in 228 shorthanded situations, the most in the NHL, and the Seattle Kraken were next-worst at 72.2%. Vancouver also finished 25-49-8 and allowed 314 goals, 19 more than any other team.
McDavid Is The Power Play
McDavid scored 48 goals and added 90 assists in 82 games for 138 points. Of those, 54 came on the power play (13 goals, 41 assists), in 3:36 of power-play time a game. He recorded a point on 79% of Edmonton’s power-play goals, and the 41 power-play assists were 46% of his season assist total.
Adding Vancouver’s 7.4-point shortfall to Edmonton’s own 30.6% rate gives a conversion rate near 38%. Over the 2.7 power plays Edmonton averaged, that projects to about one power-play goal, up from 0.83, and about 0.8 power-play points for McDavid against the 0.66 a game he averaged.
The ceiling is volume. Edmonton drew 2.71 power plays a game, below the league’s 2.88, and Vancouver was shorthanded 2.78 times a game, also below average. A disciplined night limits how much of the edge appears. The other side of the special-teams ledger is even, with Vancouver’s power play at 21.8% against an Edmonton kill at 77.8%, close to the league averages of 21.1% and 78.9%.
The Price Already Charges For It
The NHL betting odds for the opener make Edmonton a heavy favorite.
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton moneyline | -310 | 75.6% |
| Vancouver moneyline | +255 | 28.2% |
| Edmonton -1.5 | -125 | 55.6% |
| Vancouver +1.5 | +105 | 48.8% |
| Over 6.5 | -117 | 53.9% |
| Under 6.5 | -103 | 50.7% |
A straight Oilers ticket risks $310 to win $100, and the two moneyline break-evens sum to 103.8%. Blending each team’s scoring rate with its opponent’s goals-against rate puts the game at about 3.6 goals for Edmonton and 2.9 for Vancouver. That matches the 6.5 total and leaves the Oilers ahead by less than a goal, a thin cushion for a moneyline that needs Edmonton to win three times in four to break even.
At that team price, the legal sports betting angle in this game is McDavid’s individual markets. The same mismatch adds about 0.16 points to his expected total there, without depending on Edmonton covering a margin.
Two New Coaches Cloud The Sample
The 2025-26 special-teams rates came under Kris Knoblauch, fired in May after the Oilers’ first-round playoff exit, and Adam Foote, fired May 19 after one season with the Canucks. Babcock, 63, hired June 23, has not coached a regular-season NHL game since Toronto fired him in 2019. Malhotra, who won the AHL’s Calder Cup with Abbotsford in 2024-25, makes his NHL head-coaching debut.
Edmonton went 4-0-0 in the preseason and outscored opponents 14-5, but neither staff has shown a regular-season power play or kill. The teams meet again Thursday, Oct. 1, at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.
