- Cole Caufield props include a +140 anytime goal against a Toronto team that allowed 295 goals, second most in the NHL.
- His 51 goals came on 33.7 expected goals and a 19.8% shooting percentage, well above his 14.2% career mark.
- He took three or more shots in 53 of 81 games, volume that does not depend on his finishing.
- The Canadiens are -112 and the Maple Leafs -108 on the moneyline, with the total at 6.5 and the Under at -120.
TORONTO – Cole Caufield is +140 to score an anytime goal Tuesday when the Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs to open the NHL season. The price leans on a 51-goal season that the quality of his chances does not fully support, which makes his shot volume the steadier way into the game.
Caufield’s +140 Rests On A 19.8% Shooting Season
Caufield scored 51 goals in 81 games last season and assisted in 37 of them, a 45.7% rate against the 41.7% that +140 needs to break even. On results alone, the price looks generous.
The chances behind the goals say otherwise. Models credited him with 33.7 expected goals, so he finished 17.3 above it, shooting 19.8% on 258 shots against a career mark of 14.2%. At that career rate, those shots produce about 37 goals.
Part of the gap is real shooting skill, since he beat the model by 7.8 goals in 2024-25. But 17.3 is more than double that, and finishing at that level is the piece least likely to repeat, so the +140 needs the outlier to hold.
Toronto Gave Up The Most Shots In The NHL
The Maple Leafs allowed 32.4 shots per game last season, the most in the league, and 295 goals, second most, according to NHL statistics. Shots on goal is a standard player market at online sports betting sites, and it is the one where Caufield’s 2025-26 rate can be taken at face value, because it does not depend on finishing.
He averaged 3.2 shots a game, reaching three in 53 of 81 and four in 36. In four meetings with Toronto he took 14 shots and scored once. Toronto’s new goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky, posted a .877 save percentage with the Florida Panthers last season.
The table converts last season’s hit rates into break-even odds for each prop.
Caufield anytime goal
- Games
- 37 of 81
- Hit rate
- 45.7%
- Break-even odds
- +119
Caufield 3+ shots
- Games
- 53 of 81
- Hit rate
- 65.4%
- Break-even odds
- -189
Caufield 4+ shots
- Games
- 36 of 81
- Hit rate
- 44.4%
- Break-even odds
- +125
Caufield 1+ points
- Games
- 56 of 81
- Hit rate
- 69.1%
- Break-even odds
- -224
Nylander anytime goal
- Games
- 26 of 65
- Hit rate
- 40.0%
- Break-even odds
- +150
Nylander 1+ points
- Games
- 46 of 65
- Hit rate
- 70.8%
- Break-even odds
- -242
Points Props Carry The Same Finishing Risk
Caufield had a point in 56 of 81 games, but 51 of his 88 points were goals, so a points line inherits the finishing surplus that sits under the goal price. Shots are the cleaner way into the matchup, and points are the correlated add if the finishing holds.
Nylander Scored In Three Of Four Against Montreal
William Nylander scored 30 goals and totaled 79 points in 65 games last season, finding the net in 26 of them. Against Montreal he scored three goals with six points in four games, a sample too small to move a price on its own. Montreal allowed 251 goals, 3.06 a game and a mid-table mark, which makes Nylander’s matchup less favorable than Caufield’s against a Toronto defense that allows so many shots.
Toronto’s Games Averaged 6.67 Goals Against A 6.5 Total
The over 6.5 is +100 and the under -120. Toronto’s games averaged 6.67 goals last season, on 252 scored and 295 allowed, and Montreal’s averaged 6.46, on 279 scored and 251 allowed. Together the two profiles sit at 6.6 goals a game, just above the number, so the -120 on the under leans on a game played at Montreal’s pace rather than Toronto’s. A Caufield goal also pushes the game toward the over, so the two positions carry the same risk.
Puck drop is 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena, one of five games on the opening-night NHL betting board.
