- The under 6.5 sits at even money for Game 2, with the over priced at -120.
- Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA and Sonny Gray a 2.72, and neither averages six full innings a start.
- Boston’s relievers own MLB’s lowest ERA at 3.00, with the Yankees second at 3.15.
- New York leads the series 1-0 after a 9-0 Game 1 that was 4-0 through seven innings.
NEW YORK – The under 6.5 is the best bet for Wednesday’s Red Sox-Yankees Game 2, where Sonny Gray of the Boston Red Sox faces Max Fried of the New York Yankees behind the two lowest-ERA bullpens in MLB.
Two Elite Bullpens Wait Behind Short Starts
Boston’s relievers finished the regular season with a 3.00 ERA, the lowest in MLB, and New York’s 3.15 ranks second, ahead of Milwaukee’s 3.40. Fried averaged 5.63 innings a start and Gray 5.83, which puts roughly three innings on each side in the hands of those two units.
Boston can use its best arms early in an elimination game. Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock sat out Game 1, and New York’s bullpen worked lightly behind Cam Schlittler. That leaves the seventh through the ninth to the best relievers in the sport rather than mop-up arms. The over is the shorter price on legal sports betting boards, a sign the market leans toward runs.
Fried Suppresses Contact, Gray Is The Softer Target
Fried is 5-5 with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, and Baseball Savant’s expected numbers say it is earned. His .246 xwOBA against sits far below the .320 league norm and matches his actual results almost exactly. He has allowed four home runs in 112.2 innings.
Boston has scored once against him in 11.2 innings this year. He threw eight scoreless frames at Fenway Park on April 22, then lasted 3.2 innings Aug. 29 in his first start back from an elbow bone bruise that cost him two weeks. Over five starts since his return he has a 2.73 ERA and has lasted fewer than four innings twice, so the Yankees’ bullpen may decide the middle innings.
Gray is the softer side. He is 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, but his .303 xwOBA against is only modestly better than average and well short of Fried’s .246. He beat the Yankees twice this season and allowed three earned runs across 13.2 innings. He is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career postseason games.
Game 1’s Nine Runs Came Late
Game 1 cleared its 6.5 total, but New York led only 4-0 through seven innings before a five-run eighth built on Ben Rice’s grand slam. Rice went 4-for-5 with two homers and six RBIs, and the Yankees had 12 hits without Aaron Judge, who remains out with a strained right soleus. Schlittler struck out 10 over 6.1 scoreless innings, and Boston’s Payton Tolle lasted 4.2 innings. The Red Sox had three hits.
Boston’s lineup is thinner Wednesday. Roman Anthony left Game 1 in the sixth with right hand discomfort and may not play, with Jahmai Jones expected to lead off if he sits. A lineup like that, facing Fried, has a hard path past two or three runs, which would leave the over needing four or five from a Yankees offense that scored three earned runs off Gray in two meetings.
What Could Bust The Under
The Yankees’ 12 hits show a lineup that scores without Judge, and Gray’s postseason ERA sits above his regular-season mark. A short Fried start would also hand more innings to a bullpen that trails Boston’s by 0.15 in ERA. Even so, two starters with ERAs under 3.00 make the even-money under on legal MLB betting sites the better-paying side of a low-scoring read.
Game 2 starts at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday on NBC and Peacock. A Boston win would force a Game 3 at Yankee Stadium on Thursday.
