- Toronto is a -130 favorite over the Islanders (+110) at 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, one night after a 3-2 loss to Montreal.
- Toronto went 6-8-1 on the second night of back-to-backs last season, earning 43.3% of available points against 48.5% otherwise.
- Anthony Stolarz, who stopped 89.3% of shots last season, is Toronto’s expected starter against Ilya Sorokin, who stopped 90.6%.
- The total is 6 at -110 each way, and 11 of Toronto’s 15 second-night games last season went Over 6.
TORONTO – Beaten 3-2 by Montreal in Tuesday’s opener, the Toronto Maple Leafs are -130 home favorites over the New York Islanders on the second night of a back-to-back. The Islanders odds are +110, and last season’s results lean their way, with Toronto losing all three meetings with New York.
A Monday Trade Reshaped A Roster That Missed The Playoffs
Toronto went 32-36-14 last season and missed the playoffs. General manager John Chayka reshaped the roster Monday, and Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and goalie Elvis Merzlikins arrived from Columbus. Going the other way were Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz and Emil Andrae, a defenseman, plus a second-round pick in 2027.
Marchenko, who scored 27 goals in 76 games last season, signed a six-year, $75 million extension. Merzlikins has no timeline to return after offseason shoulder surgery, and coach Jim Hiller, hired in June, made his Toronto debut Tuesday.
Toronto Earned 43% Of Points On Second Nights
Toronto went 6-8-1 in the second game of a back-to-back last season, taking 13 of 30 possible points (43.3%) against 48.5% in its other 67 games. The Leafs were outscored 62-50 in those 15 games, about 0.3 goals a game worse than their season-long margin.
The cost is real but small, and it comes from 15 games. The bigger hurdle is the price. At -130 legal sports betting odds, Toronto has to win 56.5% of the time to break even, and it won 39% of its games last season, so the new roster has to close that distance.
Stolarz Trails Sorokin By .013 In Save Percentage
Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 24 shots in his Toronto debut Tuesday, so Anthony Stolarz is the expected starter, though neither team had confirmed its goalie. Stolarz went 10-10-3 with a .893 save percentage last season. Ilya Sorokin, a Vezina Trophy runner-up, posted a .906 with seven shutouts.
Toronto faced 32.4 shots a game last season, the most in the NHL, so a .013 gap in save percentage is worth about 0.4 goals a game. Raw save percentage does not adjust for shot quality, so that gap is an estimate, not a verdict.
Toronto’s +200 Puck Line Needs 33%, Not 22%
Toronto won by two or more goals in 18 of 82 games last season (22%) and in 10 of 41 at home (24%), so -1.5 at +200, which needs 33.3%, is priced well above its record. The Islanders at +1.5 (-240) need to win outright or lose by one goal 70.6% of the time, and they did in 59 of 82 games (72%), so that side sits close to last season’s evidence.
Moneyline
- Bet
- Maple Leafs
- Odds
- -130
- Implies
- 56.5%
Moneyline
- Bet
- Islanders
- Odds
- +110
- Implies
- 47.6%
Puck line
- Bet
- Maple Leafs -1.5
- Odds
- +200
- Implies
- 33.3%
Puck line
- Bet
- Islanders +1.5
- Odds
- -240
- Implies
- 70.6%
Total 6
- Bet
- Over
- Odds
- -110
- Implies
- 52.4%
Total 6
- Bet
- Under
- Odds
- -110
- Implies
- 52.4%
The Over 6 Hit In 11 Of Toronto’s 15 Second Nights
A total of exactly six goals, such as 4-2 or a 3-3 game decided in a shootout, is a push. Toronto’s games averaged 6.67 goals last season and went Over 6 in 45 of 82 with 10 pushes, while the Islanders’ averaged 5.67, so the number sits between the two profiles.
On second nights, Toronto’s games averaged 7.47 goals, with 11 Overs, three pushes and one Under. Fifteen games is a small sample, and the Islanders allowed 27.7 shots a game against Toronto’s 32.4, so New York’s defense is the counterweight to that trend.
The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena, one of three games on the NHL betting board, with the Islanders opening their season and Toronto playing a second straight night.
