- Penn State is laying 3 points at Northwestern and is -140 on the moneyline against +120 for the Wildcats, with the total at 45.5.
- Penn State fell from No. 13 out of the AP Top 25 after Wisconsin came back from 17-0 down to win 24-20.
- Northwestern has covered all three of its games, most recently a 29-23 loss at No. 5 Indiana as roughly a 21-point underdog.
- Northwestern won 22-21 at Penn State last October as a 20.5-point underdog.
EVANSTON, Ill. – The Penn State Nittany Lions are a 3-point favorite at the Northwestern Wildcats on Friday night, days after the Wisconsin Badgers came back from 17-0 down at Beaver Stadium to win 24-20. That collapse sent Penn State from No. 13 out of the AP Top 25, and now makes them slight favorites at the first game ofthe new Ryan Field.
What The Number Says About Penn State
Strip out the roughly three points oddsmakers credit a home team, and a 3-point road spread still rates Penn State about six points better than Northwestern on a neutral field. Some legal sports betting boards hold the spread at 2.5 rather than 3, and the spread and the 45.5 total together project a score near 24-21.
Penn State
- Spread
- -3
- Moneyline Odds
- -140
- Implies
- 58.3%
Northwestern
- Spread
- +3
- Moneyline Odds
- +120
- Implies
- 45.5%
At -140, Penn State has to win about 58 percent of the time for a moneyline bet to break even. Northwestern breaks even at +120 by winning about 45 percent.
Penn State’s 17-0 Lead Came Off Turnovers
Penn State’s 17-0 cushion was built on takeaways. Josiah Zayas took a Colton Joseph interception back for a touchdown, and Rocco Becht ran 3 yards for a score after Daryus Dixson’s interception set up the Nittany Lions at the Wisconsin 11, according to the Associated Press. Those two turnovers produced 14 of Penn State’s 20 points.
Wisconsin finished with 355 yards to Penn State’s 248 and got two late scoring throws from Joseph – an 11-yarder with 3:31 to play, then a 72-yarder with 1:13 left that won it. Becht completed 12 of 29 passes for 129 yards, threw an interception, and the Nittany Lions managed only a field goal after halftime.
Penn State’s three wins came by a combined 127-22 over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. The case for the number is the defense: it forces a three-and-out on 40.8 percent of opposing possessions, a rate only two teams in the country beat, according to the school’s game notes. That unit faces Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has not thrown an interception this season, and turnovers supplied most of Penn State’s points against Wisconsin.
Northwestern Has Covered Every Game
At Indiana, the Wildcats went to halftime down 12-0 to the Indiana Hoosiers, then outscored them 23-17 from there and beat a number of about 21 points by more than two touchdowns. Chiles went 22-of-29 for 293 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing score. Through three games, he has 807 passing yards, six touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Three games is a thin sample, and two came at home against South Dakota State and Colorado. The 45.5 total sits below the combined score of every Northwestern game this season, which finished 52, 48 and 52. The projected 21 points for the Wildcats is also fewer than the 23 they scored at Indiana, so the number bets that Penn State’s defense holds Northwestern below anything it has done so far.
Penn State Favorites Have Burned Bettors Before
Penn State laid 20.5 points at Beaver Stadium last October, a week after a loss at UCLA as a 24.5-point favorite. No other FBS team in the previous 30 years had dropped back-to-back games while favored by 20 or more, CBS Sports reported.
The market has trimmed that premium since, and legal college football betting boards now have the Nittany Lions laying 3 on the road. Whether that is still too much rests on an offense that managed 248 yards at home against Wisconsin.
