- San Diego is -136 to win Game 2 and Chicago is +116, with the total set at 7.5 runs.
- Kevin Gausman starts for the Cubs on a sore non-throwing shoulder, and Nick Pivetta starts for the Padres.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong hit .364 with four home runs in six games against San Diego this season before going 0-for-3 in Game 1.
- Baseball Savant puts his expected wOBA 26 points above his actual wOBA, so the results have lagged the contact.
SAN DIEGO – One loss from elimination, the Chicago Cubs meet the San Diego Padres as +116 underdogs on Wednesday night in Game 2 of their National League Wild Card Series.
The Cubs are down 1-0 after Tuesday’s 8-0 rout at Petco Park, and Pete Crow-Armstrong props reset off an 0-for-3, three-strikeout opener in which Padres starter Michael King struck him out on three pitches in his first at-bat and held Chicago hitless into the seventh inning.
Gausman Starts On A Sore Shoulder
First pitch is 10 p.m. ET on Peacock. The Cubs confirmed Kevin Gausman as the Game 2 starter after questions about his availability. A diving tag in his final regular-season start, against Miami, left his non-throwing left shoulder sore, but he told the Chicago Sun-Times, “I feel good enough to go out there.”
Pivetta Returns From Nearly Five Months Out
A flexor strain in Pivetta’s elbow cost him nearly five months, and he returned Sept. 7. The four starts since have produced a 1.45 ERA, three earned runs across 18.2 innings. On the season he is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA, 42 strikeouts and eight walks in 34.2 innings. Four starts are too few to trust the ERA, but the strikeout and walk rates over that many innings are large enough to mean something.
The Season Series Says Little About Pivetta
The Cubs won five of six regular-season meetings and outscored San Diego 55-28, but Pivetta was on the injured list for every one of them. A 23-3 rout on July 1 accounts for most of the gap, and without it Chicago led 32-25 across the other five games.
Crow-Armstrong Hit San Diego Hard Before Game 1
In those six meetings Crow-Armstrong went 8-for-22 with four homers and 10 RBI, a 1.391 OPS. His hard-hit rate is 48.6% and his barrel rate 13.3%, both above the 45% and 12% marks that separate elite contact from good, and his .374 expected wOBA runs 26 points above his actual wOBA. Petco Park cuts against the power, with a wOBA park factor of 97 against a neutral 100.
Crow-Armstrong’s Game 1 Prop Board
Game 1’s board priced Crow-Armstrong as follows, and the Game 2 markets on MLB betting sites are the ones that count.
| Market (Game 1) | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| To record a hit | -210 | 67.7% |
| Over 1.5 total bases | +110 | 47.6% |
| To steal a base | +300 | 25.0% |
The hit is the priciest of the three. At 67.7% it sits just under what a .264 expected batting average produces over four at-bats, about 71%, a thin cushion that Pivetta and Petco Park can erase. Total bases fits the contact better, since a .508 expected slugging percentage projects to roughly two bases over four at-bats against a 1.5 online sports betting line with +110 odds.
The steal is the thinnest case. Pivetta has walked eight batters in 34.2 innings and Gausman 11 in 50.1, so a steal has to start with a hit.
Miller Has Not Shut Chicago Down
Closer Mason Miller carries a 1.67 ERA and 38 saves, but the Cubs got five hits and two earned runs off him in 2.2 innings across three appearances this season. A late Crow-Armstrong at-bat against Miller is not a dead spot for the total-bases line.
A Cubs win Wednesday forces a deciding Game 3 on Thursday at Petco Park. The team that takes the best-of-three draws the Milwaukee Brewers in the Division Series.
