- Kansas City’s AFC West odds shortened from -135 to -150 and Denver lengthened from +225 to +265 earlier this week.
- The 3-0 Raiders are +550 for the division and +175 to beat the Chiefs, who are 4-point favorites Sunday at -210.
- A $100 Chiefs ticket at -150 wins $66.67, while $100 on the Raiders at +550 wins $550.
- Las Vegas allows the NFL’s lowest EPA per play at -0.18, but its offense ranks 25th in success rate.
LAS VEGAS – The Kansas City Chiefs shortened from -135 to -150 in the AFC West odds since earlier this week, ahead of Sunday’s game at the unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders, who are +550 to win the division. The Denver Broncos lengthened from +225 to +265 over the same stretch, and the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium puts a 3-0 team on each sideline.
Sunday Is Priced As Kansas City’s Game
Across legal sports betting markets, the Chiefs are the favorites on the spread and the moneyline, and the division price has followed. At -150 the Chiefs ticket breaks even if Kansas City wins the division 60% of the time, while at +550 the Raiders ticket breaks even at about 15%, a gap that treats two teams level in the standings as very different bets.
The two teams are level on the scoreboard, too. Each is 3-0 and 1-0 in the division, with 88 points scored and margins of +38 for Kansas City and +34 for Las Vegas. Kansas City beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1, and Las Vegas beat the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 in Week 2.
What separates the prices is last season. Las Vegas finished 3-14, and its last win was the home finale against Kansas City, a 14-12 result on Jan. 4 that the Raiders’ game preview lists as the most recent meeting. The Raiders have already shortened a long way on the NFL betting board, from +1800 before their Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins, so a $100 ticket at that earlier number would win $1,800, against $550 today.
The Raiders’ Defense Is First And Their Offense Is Not
Las Vegas’ start rests on a defense that allows the lowest EPA per play in the NFL at -0.18, first against the pass and fourth against the run. The offense is a different team. It is essentially league average in EPA per play at -0.005 (17th), 25th in success rate at 44.1% and 24th on early downs at -0.11. Kansas City’s offense is fifth in EPA per play at 0.13 and fourth in success rate at 53.7%.
The split matters for a division price because offensive efficiency carries from year to year better than defensive efficiency does, so a 3-0 start built on defense is the kind the market has the most reason to discount. Three games is also short of the four to six that team EPA needs to settle, the figures are not adjusted for opponent, and two of the three teams Las Vegas has beaten, the Dolphins and the Chargers, are 0-3.
Brock Bowers missed the first two games and returned in Week 3 with 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the 35-27 win at New Orleans, so two-thirds of the offense’s sample came without the tight end.
Denver Prices Ahead Of The Unbeaten Raiders
The Broncos are 2-1 but have been outscored by 10 points and are 0-1 in the division after the 31-10 loss at Kansas City, yet they price ahead of a Raiders team that is 3-0 with a +34 margin. Denver’s offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play at -0.05, and its run defense is last in the league at 0.11 EPA per rush allowed.
Denver’s best path to the division title includes the Nov. 1 rematch at home against Kansas City. Before that, the Broncos visit the 3-0 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Record
- 3-0
- Odds
- -150
- Implies
- 60.0%
- $100 Wins
- $66.67
Denver Broncos
- Record
- 2-1
- Odds
- +265
- Implies
- 27.4%
- $100 Wins
- $265
Las Vegas Raiders
- Record
- 3-0
- Odds
- +550
- Implies
- 15.4%
- $100 Wins
- $550
Los Angeles Chargers
- Record
- 0-3
- Odds
- +2200
- Implies
- 4.3%
- $100 Wins
- $2,200
Sunday Sets The Head-To-Head Before Kansas City’s Bye
A Chiefs win makes them 4-0 and 2-0 in the division with the head-to-head lead, and Kansas City then sits out Week 5. Las Vegas would be 3-1 and would need to win the Week 18 rematch in Kansas City to split the series, which would send the tiebreaker to division record.
A Raiders win reverses all of it, leaving Las Vegas 4-0 with the head-to-head edge and Kansas City 3-1 entering the bye. It is also the result that would leave a +550 ticket bought before kickoff holding the better number.
The two teams meet again in Week 18 in Kansas City, with the date and time still to be set.
