- Kamario Taylor props price him at -117 to score a touchdown anytime and +900 to score first, though he has one rushing touchdown in four games.
- Taylor is third on the Heisman board at +700, in from +1300 before he threw for 360 yards against Missouri.
- Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 60, and the Crimson Tide are -225 on the moneyline.
- Taylor has 1,192 passing yards and 14 touchdowns against two interceptions, an average of 298 yards per game.
STARKVILLE, Miss. – Kamario Taylor, the Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback and third on the Heisman Trophy board at +700, is -117 to score an anytime touchdown in Saturday’s against the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide.
Taylor Averages 298 Yards, But No Start Landed Near It
Four starts in, Taylor has connected on 83 of 120 throws, a 69.2% clip, and his 1,192 yards have come with 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions. His 9.9 yards per attempt sits just behind the 10.3 posted by Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell, so the two Heisman contenders arrive about equally efficient.
His passing yardage has run 354 against Louisiana-Monroe, 227 at Minnesota, 251 at South Carolina and 360 against Missouri. No start finished within 45 yards of the 298 average, because he has been either near 240 or near 360.
In the 31-24 win over Missouri he went 27 of 38 and threw a tiebreaking 24-yard touchdown pass to Sanfrisco Magee with 3:57 left. He also carried 10 times for 7 yards that day, part of a season rushing line that reads 185 yards and a single score on 37 attempts.
The Heisman Price Tracks The Results
The market for betting on the Heisman moved Taylor from +1300 to +700 after the Missouri game, behind Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith at +350 and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at +400. Russell went from +2800 to +1200 after throwing for 365 yards in a 49-18 win over South Carolina, so both quarterbacks meet Saturday after shortening on a game of 360 or more yards.
A -117 Touchdown Price On A One-Score Rushing Record
Anytime touchdown markets settle on scores a player runs in or catches, so none of Taylor’s 14 touchdown passes count. His lone rushing touchdown came against Louisiana-Monroe on Sept. 5, and he has gone three straight games without another.
At -117 a ticket breaks even if Taylor scores in 53.9% of games, and he has scored in one of four, or 25%. The price is a bet on a bigger goal-line role, since his rushing record does not get there.
The rest of the board shows where the market sees the touchdowns coming. Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell is the shortest price at -182 after three rushing touchdowns and one receiving score, and Alabama running back Daniel Hill is -174. Russell is -162 with a rushing score in three of Alabama’s four games.
Across legal sports betting markets, the Saturday numbers read:
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama -5.5 | -115 | 53.5% |
| Alabama moneyline | -225 | 69.2% |
| Mississippi State moneyline | +185 | 35.1% |
| Total 60 (over or under) | -110 | 52.4% |
| Taylor anytime touchdown | -117 | 53.9% |
| Taylor first touchdown | +900 | 10.0% |
| Russell anytime touchdown | -162 | 61.8% |
| Taylor Heisman Trophy | +700 | 12.5% |
| Russell Heisman Trophy | +1200 | 7.7% |
The Spread Projects Both Offenses Under Pace
The 5.5-point spread and the total of 60 work out to roughly 33 points for the Crimson Tide and 27 for the Bulldogs. Alabama is averaging 48 points through four games and Mississippi State 43, and the Bulldogs have scored at least 31 in every one, so the market has both offenses coming in well under their pace.
The defenses give up similar amounts. Alabama has allowed 81 points, 20.3 a game and including 36 to Florida State, and Mississippi State has allowed 84, or 21.0. Games involving the Bulldogs have averaged 64 total points and Alabama’s 68.3, which puts the 60 below both marks. Alabama was laying 6.5 earlier this week before the number shaded to 5.5, so Mississippi State backers who took the points early hold the better number.
Alabama Has Won 16 Straight, The Last Four By 23 Or More
Alabama has beaten Mississippi State 16 straight times since the Bulldogs won 17-12 in Starkville on Nov. 10, 2007. The last four meetings ended 41-0 in 2020, 49-9 in 2021, 30-6 in 2022 and 40-17 on Sept. 30, 2023, also in Starkville. A spread of 5.5 treats that run as a different era.
Both teams arrive 4-0 and 2-0 in the Southeastern Conference, in one of Saturday’s SEC games on the college football betting board. Kickoff is at noon ET Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium on ABC.
