- The Jaguars-Bengals total of 51.5 is the highest of Week 4, with Cincinnati a 2.5-point home favorite.
- Those numbers split into about 27 points for the Bengals and 24.5 for the Jaguars.
- Jacksonville’s three games have totaled 44, 33 and 41 points, and its defense has allowed 20 or fewer each time.
- The lean is the Under, with Cincinnati’s boom-or-bust offense and defensive practice absences the main risks.
CINCINNATI – The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in the highest-total game of NFL Week 4 at 51.5 points, with the Bengals favored by 2.5. The Jaguars-Bengals total splits into about 27 points for Cincinnati and 24.5 for Jacksonville, and no Jaguars opponent has scored more than 20 this season.
The Number Asks Cincinnati For 27
Across legal sports betting boards, no other Week 4 game is above 51, the total for the Detroit Lions at the Carolina Panthers. The rest of the slate sits at 49 or lower. Dividing out the 2.5-point spread gives the Bengals 27 and the Jaguars 24.5, derived shares rather than posted team-total lines. One board lists Cincinnati at -3, which shifts each share by a quarter point.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Share of 51.5
- 27
- Scored per game
- 26.7
- Allowed per game
- 21.0
- Average game total
- 47.7
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Share of 51.5
- 24.5
- Scored per game
- 27.3
- Allowed per game
- 12.0
- Average game total
- 39.3
Neither team’s games average the number. Cincinnati’s have averaged 47.7 combined points and Jacksonville’s 39.3, so 51.5 sits 3.8 and 12.2 above their norms.
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 51.5 | -110 to -115 |
| Under 51.5 | -105 to -110 |
Jacksonville’s Defense Anchors The Under
The Jaguars held the Cleveland Browns to 10 points, the Denver Broncos to 20 and the New England Patriots to 6, an average of 12.0. Cleveland is 3-1 and Denver 2-1, so none of those opponents is winless. Jacksonville ranks third in the NFL at -0.10 expected points allowed per play, and opponents succeed on 43.9% of snaps against a league norm near 47%.
The offense keeps the over alive, fourth in EPA per play at 0.13 and second in success rate at 54.6%, and it scored 34 and 35 in its two wins, including a 35-6 rout of the Patriots on Sept. 27.
The one road game was a 20-13 loss at Denver, where the Jaguars managed 13, and Sunday is their second away game. Three games is short of the four to six that team EPA needs to settle, and none of it is adjusted for opponent.
Cincinnati’s Offense Is The Case For The Over
Two of the Bengals’ three games cleared 51.5, a 33-27 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (60 points) and a 30-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (57) that ended their unbeaten start. In between, Cincinnati won 20-6 at the Houston Texans, a 26-point game. That 34-point range fits a boom-or-bust offense, fourth in explosive-play rate at 15.6% but 17th in success rate at 46.0%, about the league norm.
Joe Burrow’s passing has added 11.5 expected points over three games while Cincinnati’s rushing has cost 4.4, so the production depends on big throws more than on staying ahead of the chains. It also came against weaker opposition by record, with the Buccaneers and Texans winless and the Steelers 2-2, a combined 2-8, while Jacksonville’s three opponents are 6-4 together.
The defense is the other half of the over case. Cincinnati allows 21.0 points per game, gave up 30 points and 411 yards to the Steelers, and ranks 12th in EPA allowed at -0.03, a middling mark. The NFL’s latest practice report lists defensive tackle B.J. Hill (Achilles) and safety Kyle Dugger (quadriceps) as not participating.
The National Weather Service forecast for Cincinnati calls for mostly sunny skies, a high near 74 degrees, 2 mph wind and a 1% chance of precipitation, so weather offers no reason to shade the total down.
Where The Lean Lands
The NFL betting total over needs 52 points, which means Cincinnati reaching its 27 while Jacksonville reaches 25. The Bengals have scored 27 or more twice and the Jaguars 25 or more twice, but only one of these defenses has held every opponent to 20 or fewer. The lean is the Under at 51.5, with Burrow’s explosive passing and the Bengals’ defensive absences the paths to losing it. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Paycor Stadium.
