- The Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites at -600 on the moneyline, with the total at 38.5.
- Minnesota’s offense is last in success rate at 38.6% and Miami’s defense is last in expected points allowed per play.
- Miami has lost by 14, 22 and 14 points to unbeaten teams and has not scored more than 13.
- Justin Jefferson is ruled out for Sunday’s game after failing to practice on Friday.
MINNEAPOLIS – The Minnesota Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites over the winless Miami Dolphins on Sunday, the second-largest spread of NFL Week 4 behind the Baltimore Ravens’ 11.5 against the Tennessee Titans. Kickoff is 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Minnesota Wins With Its Defense
Minnesota is 3-0 on a defense that ranks second in the NFL at -0.16 expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, meaning it takes points away from opponents on the average snap. It is first at holding opponents to a 36.3% success rate.
The offense is the opposite. It ranks 21st at -0.03 EPA per play, last in early-down EPA, 28th in explosive-play rate and last in success rate at 38.6%, with Miami’s offense a hair ahead at 31st.
The wins came by 17, 6 and 7 points over Green Bay, Chicago and Tampa Bay, an average margin of 10.0 that sits half a point under the spread. The 17-point win came after Minnesota trailed Green Bay 22-17 entering the fourth quarter.
The Vikings also own a +4 turnover margin, a figure that tends to regress toward zero. At Tampa Bay they got an 86-yard punt return touchdown from Myles Price in a game that quarterback Kyler Murray started after returning from concussion protocol.
The Total Leaves A Cover Little Room
The Vikings and the Ravens are the only double-digit favorites on the Week 4 legal NFL betting board.
Minnesota Vikings
- Spread
- -10.5
- Moneyline
- -600
- Implies
- 85.7%
Miami Dolphins
- Spread
- +10.5
- Moneyline
- +425
- Implies
- 19.0%
A 10.5-point spread inside a 38.5-point total splits into about 24.5 points for Minnesota and 14 for Miami. Those are derived shares rather than posted team totals, and some books list 39.
The Vikings average 23.7 points and have scored 25 or more once, while the Dolphins average 12.0 and have not reached 14. A 24-14 win leaves Minnesota a point short of covering, and Miami would not have covered +10.5 in any of its three games, all losses of 14 or more.
At legal sports betting sites, a -600 moneyline ticket on Minnesota breaks even only if the Vikings win about 86% of the time, a high bar for an offense ranked last in success rate.
Miami’s Defense Is The Pressure Point
Miami’s defense is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed at +0.14 and in success rate allowed at 52.6%. Its pass defense is last too, at +0.46 EPA per pass play, and the Dolphins have not recorded a sack this season.
Those marks came against unbeaten Kansas City, Las Vegas and San Francisco and are not adjusted for opponent. They still leave Minnesota’s passing game, 24th at -0.04 EPA per pass play, as the likeliest path to 25 points. That path depends on Murray and Jefferson, who has 13 catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns.
A Backdoor Cover Needs A Big Play
A backdoor cover is a late score that trims a decided game inside the number, and it is the Dolphins’ realistic route to +10.5. Miami’s explosive-play rate is 8.5%, 30th in the NFL. Its lone touchdown pass of the season was a 77-yarder from Malik Willis to Ryan Miller with 2:30 left, which trimmed a 35-6 deficit at San Francisco to the 35-13 final.
Willis has 627 passing yards but that one touchdown. Against Kansas City, Miami trailed 14-10 entering the fourth quarter and was outscored 10-0 from there.
Minnesota’s blitz rate is 71%, CBS Sports reported, with Tampa Bay second at 46%. Blitz-heavy defenses trade pressure for exposure on deep throws, which is the profile of the 77-yarder. One such play late is how Miami would trim a lead against a defense allowing 13.7 points a game.
Jefferson’s Ankle Could Move The Number
Justin Jefferson is ruled out for Sunday after spraining his ankle on his seventh snap at Tampa Bay, and coach Kevin O’Connell called him day-to-day. Miami placed Achane on injured reserve Sept. 28 with a torn ACL suffered against Kansas City, and wide receiver Caleb Douglas (ankle) did not practice Thursday while Chris Bell (knee) was limited.
