- The under 6.5 is the best bet at -117 for Sharks-Stars on Monday night.
- Games involving Dallas averaged 6.04 goals last season and games involving San Jose 6.57, a 6.3 midpoint.
- Dallas and San Jose were two of the NHL’s seven lowest-volume shooting teams last season, at 25.3 and 25.8 shots a game.
- Dallas has one goal in two games on 55 shots, while San Jose’s nine goals came from 5.4 expected goals.
DALLAS – The under 6.5 in Monday’s San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars game is the best bet on the NHL’s four-game slate. Puck drop is 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and the total sits 0.2 goals above the 6.3 that games involving the two teams averaged last season.
Sharks-Stars Prices On Monday’s Board
The NHL betting odds for the game make Dallas a heavy home favorite and put the total at 6.5, tied for the highest on the four-game slate.
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 | -117 to -118 | 53.9% to 54.1% |
| Over 6.5 | +102 to -103 | 49.5% to 50.7% |
| Dallas Stars moneyline | -195 to -205 | 66.1% to 67.2% |
| San Jose Sharks moneyline | +171 to +173 | 36.6% to 36.9% |
| Dallas Stars -1.5 | +133 to +135 | 42.6% to 42.9% |
| San Jose Sharks +1.5 | -155 | 60.8% |
A half-goal total cannot push, so the under cashes at six goals or fewer and loses at seven. Seven or more goals came in 16 of the NHL’s first 39 games this season (41%), and the league has averaged 6.15 goals a game, in line with last season’s 6.16, so early scoring has not run hot enough to justify a total this far above the average.
The side is the harder call. The Stars’ moneyline needs a 66.1% to 67.2% win rate, above the 63.4% they posted at home last season (26 of 41), and the price stays that steep after an 0-2 start that opened with a 4-0 home loss to the St. Louis Blues.
Both Teams’ Games Averaged 6.3 Goals Last Season
Games involving Dallas averaged 6.04 goals last season, on 273 scored and 222 allowed, and games involving San Jose averaged 6.57, on 249 scored and 290 allowed. The midpoint is 6.3, against a league average of 6.16.
The two halves of the matchup pull in opposite directions. Dallas’s offense, at 3.33 goals a game, meets a San Jose defense that gave up the third-most goals in the NHL. San Jose’s offense, at 3.04, meets the second-stingiest defense, backed by Dallas goalies Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith, who combined to save 16.2 goals more than expected.
Neither Team Shoots Much
Dallas generated 25.3 shots a game last season and San Jose 25.8, against a league average of 27.8, which left the Stars with the third-fewest shots in the NHL and the Sharks the seventh-fewest. Averaging each club’s shots with the other’s shots allowed projects about 53.5 shots on Monday, 2.2 fewer than the NHL’s 55.7 a game.
Dallas scored 273 goals on that thin volume because its 13.2% shooting percentage was the league’s best, a finishing edge already inside the 6.3.
San Jose’s 2-0 Start Rests On Overtime And Finishing
The Sharks beat the Florida Panthers 4-3 in overtime on Oct. 1 and the Los Angeles Kings 5-4 in overtime on Saturday, both at home, so Monday is their first road game.
They scored nine goals on 57 shots, a 15.8% rate against 11.8% last season, while MoneyPuck credits them with 5.4 expected goals, a 41% expected-goals share and a 44% Corsi share. The Kings outshot them 35-25.
San Jose’s PDO, shooting percentage plus save percentage against a neutral 100, is about 104, past the 102 level that marks unsustainable luck. Its 4.5 goals a game is the figure most likely to fall.
Dallas’s 0-2 Start Is Not Only Bad Finishing
Dallas is 0-2-0 for the first time since 2019, according to the team’s website, and has scored once in two games on 55 shots, a 1.8% rate against last season’s 13.2%. The Stars held 55% of shot attempts, including a 65-52 edge at Nashville, but MoneyPuck credits them with 5.3 expected goals and only 0.55 from high-danger chances, against 1.34 a game last season.
Dallas coach Glen Gulutzan said after the 2-1 loss in Nashville, “We’re not creating at a high level right now.” Dallas’s PDO is about 90, yet the drought is part chance quality as well as finishing, and only the finishing part corrects on its own.
Where The Under Can Fail
Dallas’s power play converted 28.6% last season (71 goals on 248 chances), second in the NHL behind the Edmonton Oilers, and San Jose’s penalty kill allowed 58 goals on 246 chances, a 76.4% kill rate. Two Dallas power-play goals would carry most of the way to seven.
Yaroslav Askarov, who started both Sharks games and stopped 54 of 61 shots (.885), was 18.9 goals worse than expected over 47 games last season, according to MoneyPuck.
A full Dallas rebound alone would not reach seven. Back at 13.2% on about 27.5 projected shots, the Stars score about 3.6 goals, and San Jose’s scoring pace against Dallas’s defense, about 2.9, brings the game to 6.5, the number on the board.
Jets At Penguins Carries The Other 6.5
The Winnipeg Jets’ visit to the Pittsburgh Penguins is posted at 6.5 as well, but it reads differently. Pittsburgh generated 28.6 shots a game last season, above the league average, and Winnipeg’s likely starter, Clay Stevenson, would be making his Jets debut, according to the team’s game-day preview.
The Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning game and the Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins game carry totals of 5.5 to 6, at least a half-goal under the number on Sharks-Stars across legal sports betting boards.
