- Dustin May to go under 8.5 pitching outs with +115 odds is a strong prop for the Brewers vs Padres matchup tonight based on his recent outings, Manager Pat Murphy’s recent history of short hooks, and the stakes of the game.
- Ty France has been extremely hot at the plate in the postseason, in the second half, vs. Dustin May, and vs the Brewers, which means the -110 odds for him to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs tonight is one of the best bets of the game.
- France to hit a laser home run with +1700 odds is a good long shot to consider based on his recent controversy and his season-long home run exit velocity stats.
SAN DIEGO – The best bets for Game 3 of the Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Division Series matchup are the under on Dustin May’s pitching outs (+115) and Ty France over 1.5 total hits, runs, and RBIs (-110). An additional longshot prop to consider is for Ty France to hit a laser home run (105+ MPH) with +1700 odds.
Dustin May Under 8.5 Pitching Outs (+115)
There are three factors that make Dustin May under 8.5 pitching outs one of the best player props at MLB betting sites ahead of tonight’s game:
- May has gone over 8.5 pitching outs in only one of his three most recent starts heading into the postseason. The only start that May went over 8.5 outs was when he went exactly nine outs versus the St. Louis Cardinals on September 26.
- Brewers manager Pat Murphy pulled Logan Henderson after only five innings in game two, despite the rookie allowing one earned run. Henderson was at 72 pitches, which is nearly 12 pitches fewer than he averaged per start this season. This may indicate a quick hook for May tonight.
- The Brewers can clinch the series tonight, and they had a rest day yesterday. Murphy may not have a problem putting innings on his relievers in a closeout game so that they secure their place in the NLCS. If the Brewers win tonight, they wouldn’t play again until October 11, which means plenty of rest for the bullpen if they win.
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Ty France had an excellent second half of the season for the Padres and has continued that into the postseason:
- Second Half Stats (63 Games): .321 Batting Average/10 Home Runs/39 RBIs/35 Runs
- Postseason Stats (4 Games): .467 Batting Average/0 Home Runs/2 RBIs/2 Runs
In the second half of the season, France averaged 2.37 hits + runs + RBIs per game.
He has also had success versus both Dustin May and the Milwaukee Brewers organization as a whole:
- vs Dustin May (13 plate appearances): 4 Hits/1 Home Run/1 RBI/1 Walk
- vs the Brewers (19 plate appearances): 7 Hits/1 Home Run/1 RBI/1 Walk
Bet at legal sports betting sites for Ty France to continue to stay hot and go over 1.5 total hits, runs, and RBIs.
Ty France to Hit a Laser Home Run (+1700)
Ty France has been hot in the postseason, but he may have been even hotter if not for controversy surrounding his plate appearance in game one when he hit a ball so hard and fast that it hit the roof of the Brewers’ stadium and resulted in an out.
The swing, which resulted in France hitting the ball at 105.3 mph with a 49 degree launch angle, was ruled an out.
Per an account on X, the only other historical precedent for how France the ball, resulted in a home run by Carlos Correa in 2021.
Ty France hit the ball 105.3 mph and 49 degrees only homer with similar parameters in Statcast history was from Carlos Correa https://t.co/ViLk21teSs— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) October 4, 2026
When bettors combine that possible good karma coming Ty France’s way with how well he has been swinging the bat in the second half, the postseason, vs Dustin May, and vs the Brewers, they may be tempted to bet on him to hit a home run with +725 odds.
Instead, they should bet on France to hit a laser home run (105+ MPH exit velocity) with +1700 odds.
As the Ty France home run exit velocity table by Baseball Savant below shows, more than half of his home runs this season have been hit at 105 MPH or higher.
Given that more than 62% of France’s home runs this season have been 105 MPH or faster, the +1700 odds are more than twice as long as his +750 odds to hit a home run at all; there is considerable extra value for this prop.
With very long odds, and a recent history of hitting 105+ MPH exit velocities, the Ty France to hit a laser home run bet at Bovada may be the most fun and best bet for the Padres vs Brewers Game 3 matchup tonight.
