- Arsenal are +165 to repeat as Premier League champions, a price implying about 38 percent, with Manchester City +300.
- All three promoted clubs sit odds-on to be relegated, led by Hull City at -500.
- Manchester United are +600 to win the title, a shorter price than Liverpool at +700.
LONDON – Arsenal are +165 to win the 2026/27 Premier League as of Tuesday afternoon, the shortest price on a 20-team title board that has Manchester City second at +300. The first Premier League match of the season starts in exactly one month with Arsenal (-600) vs Coventry City.
The Board Prices Last Season, Not the Decade
Arsenal took the 2025/26 title with 85 points, seven clear of second-place Manchester City, with Manchester United third and Liverpool fifth. The new board ranks those same four clubs in the same order. Fourth-place Aston Villa is the outlier, seventh on the title board at +3500.
Arsenal at +165 implies roughly 38 percent and City at +300 implies 25 percent. Those are the probabilities the prices assume, not measurements of how often either club actually wins the league. A futures ticket is a bet that a club’s real chance beats what the price implies, and +165 on the defending champion leaves little of that gap.
| Title winner | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | +165 | 37.7% |
| Manchester City | +300 | 25.0% |
| Manchester United | +600 | 14.3% |
| Liverpool | +700 | 12.5% |
| Chelsea | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Aston Villa | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Newcastle United | +8000 | 1.2% |
All prices are from Bovada as of July 21.
United And Liverpool Swap Places Between Two Markets
The title board is not the only place these clubs are priced, and the two markets disagree. United are +600 to win it and -200 to finish top four, about 66.7 percent implied. Liverpool are the longer title price at +700 but the shorter top-four price at -250, about 71.4 percent implied.
Read together, the board gives Liverpool the higher floor and United the higher ceiling. Chelsea are the live one at +120 to finish top four, the only price among the big clubs that implies less than a coin flip at 45.5 percent. Anyone looking to bet on the English Premier League at these numbers is choosing between a repeat priced as chalk and a chasing pack priced as a scramble.
The Promoted Three Already Carry Two Of Three Drops
Hull City are -500 to be relegated, an implied 83.3 percent. Coventry City and Ipswich Town are both -150, an implied 60 percent each. Those three add to 203 of the 300 percentage points of implied probability spread across the league’s three relegation places, so the board has assigned two of the three drops before a ball is kicked.
The established clubs hold the rest. Sunderland are +275, Leeds United +475, and Crystal Palace and Fulham both +550, an implied 15.4 percent each. That is where the market is undecided, and where last season showed how fast the picture turns. Tottenham survived in 17th on 41 points last season, one of the top Premier League betting storylines for the final matchday.
Futures Carry a Heavier Hold Than a Match Line
The hold is the reason a futures board deserves a harder look than a week-to-week legal sports betting market. The 20 title prices sum to about 111 percent of implied probability, so roughly 11 points of overround sit on a market with one winner. The relegation board sums to 342 percent against a fair 300, about 14 percent over. The top-four board sums to 440 percent against a fair 400, about 10 percent over.
Set that against a standard two-way match market at -110 on both sides, which sums to about 105 percent and requires 52.38 percent winners just to break even. A 20-selection futures board carries more than double that tax, and it shows up in the long tail, where City sit at +1200 to be relegated at the same book that lists them second favorite for the title.
Kickoff Is Aug. 21 At the Emirates
The season opens with Arsenal hosting Coventry City on Friday, Aug. 21, the champions against a club priced at +200000 to take their trophy and -150 to be relegated. Futures prices move on team news through the preseason, so this board is a snapshot, not a season.
