- Dominant interior play gives Kansas a large chance to cover the spread (-4, -115 odds).
- Caleb Love’s three-point shooting odds are among the top prop betting odds available.
NEW ORLEANS – The Kansas Jayhawks take on the North Carolina Tar Heels for all the marbles on Monday, for the right to be crowned the NCAA Men’s National Champions.
Kansas is coming off a dominant performance over the Villanova Wildcats, that saw them win 81-65. That score may even not even show how truly dominant they were, with the team shooting 53.7% (29-54) from the field and even better 54.2% (13-24) from three.
On the other hand, North Carolina just beat Duke in one of the most emotional games in College Basketball history. Not only was it the Final Four, but the matchup between archrivals resulted in UNC ending legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career by the score of 81-77.
Still, college basketball oddsmakers have Kansas as a slight favorite (-4) over North Carolina.
North Carolina Vs Kansas Betting Odds
Kansas Rightfully Favored, But Are They Favored By Enough?
Both teams have been dominant throughout the tournament, and the numbers back that up. Kansas has the largest average margin of victory amongst all teams at 16.2 points and Carolina ranks third (interestingly behind number one seeded Baylor who that beat in the Round of 32) with an average margin of victory of 14 points. Kansas has seen that number rise due to their play in the Elite Eight and Final Four when they beat Miami and Villanova by an average of 21 points.
Literally and figuratively, a large part of their dominant victory against Villanova was their frontcourt and their size, specifically David McCormack. The 6’10” senior was a dominant presence, putting up 25 points and 9 rebounds in only 29 minutes. The player that will most likely guard him is Armando Bacot, who is a 6’10” junior. This matchup is already incredibly difficult for Bacot, but the ankle injury he suffered in the final minutes of their last game may give McCormack an edge.
McCormack’s recent dominance coupled with the fact that Bacot will not be at 100%, gives the Jayhawks a huge advantage, one that might be worth more than say four points against the spread.
Villanova did not have the size to stop Kansas on the interior, and that caused their entire defense to suffer. Villanova’s tallest starter was listed at 6’8″, and the size disparity meant their defense was having to collapse into the lane, leading to wide-open threes for Kansas.
North Carolina is known for playing their starters at least 35 minutes per game in the tournament, and if Bacot is not a full go, David McCormick may power Kansas to a large win.
Love For Caleb’s Three-Point Shooting Props
Through their 5 March Madness games, Caleb Love has attempted an average of 10 three-pointers per game. In the only game he did not attempt that many threes, he fouled out with six minutes left.
The prop betting line for the sophomore guard is at 2.5 for made threes, which he would have eclipsed in three games so far throughout the tournament.
Caleb Love Total Three-Point Field Goals Made
- Over 2.5 Made Threes -167
- Under 2.5 Made Threes +127
This may be a scenario in which legal sportsbooks think the pressure of the National Championship game gets to Caleb Love. If the Sweet Sixteen (13 three point attempts), Elite Eight (10 three-point attempts), and the Final Four (10 three-point attempts) are any indication, Caleb Love will have plenty of attempts to make more than 2.5 three-point shots.
On the season, Love has averaged 2.4 made threes on 6.6 attempts per game, shooting 36.8% from long-distance.
Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.