- Pittsburgh is +117 to +122 and Philadelphia is -138 on the moneyline, with the game total at 6 goals.
- Pittsburgh’s 290 goals ranked third in the NHL and its 258 goals against ranked 24th, a plus-32 differential to Philadelphia’s plus-1.
- Special teams account for about 30 of the 31 goals separating the clubs’ differentials, led by Philadelphia’s last-ranked power play.
- Ten of Philadelphia’s 43 wins came in shootouts, against three of Pittsburgh’s 41, which flatters the Flyers’ record.
PHILADELPHIA – The Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline is the best bet in Wednesday’s NHL season opener at the Philadelphia Flyers, a rematch of the first-round series the Flyers won in six games last spring.
The Price Makes Philadelphia The Favorite
The NHL betting odds for the opener put the Flyers at home as clear favorites.
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers moneyline | -138 | 58.0% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline | +117 to +122 | 45.0% to 46.1% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 | -225 | 69.2% |
| Over 6 | -117 | 53.9% |
| Under 6 | -103 | 50.7% |
At +122, a Penguins moneyline ticket breaks even if Pittsburgh wins 45.0% of the time, against 58.0% for the Flyers at -138. The puck line is the costlier way to back Pittsburgh, since +1.5 at -225 needs 69.2%, while the moneyline settles after overtime and the shootout and still pays better than even money.
Same 98 Points, Different Goal Differentials
Pittsburgh went 41-25-16 and Philadelphia 43-27-12, and both finished with 98 points. Pittsburgh scored 290 goals and allowed 258 for a plus-32 differential. Philadelphia scored 240 and allowed 239, ninth-fewest in the NHL, for a plus-1. The Flyers matched the Penguins in points on a margin 31 goals thinner.
Special Teams Account For Nearly The Whole Gap
Pittsburgh’s power play converted 24.1% of its chances, seventh in the NHL, while Philadelphia’s converted 15.7%, last. The penalty kills follow the same order, with Pittsburgh sixth at 81.4% and Philadelphia 22nd at 77.6%.
Netting power-play goals scored against power-play goals allowed, Pittsburgh was plus-12 (56 for, 44 against) and Philadelphia minus-18 (37 for, 55 against), a 30-goal swing. Both clubs drew about the same number of power plays, 232 for Pittsburgh and 235 for Philadelphia, so the edge does not depend on penalty volume. Every whistle in Wednesday’s game tilts toward the Penguins.
Ten Of The Flyers’ 43 Wins Came In Shootouts
Philadelphia won 33 games in regulation or overtime and 10 in shootouts, while Pittsburgh won 38 and three. Flyers goalies stopped 33 of 42 shootout shots (.786) and Penguins goalies stopped 16 of 35 (.457), a split with little reason to carry into this season. Before shootouts, Pittsburgh won five more games than Philadelphia.
Where The Pick Can Go Wrong
Philadelphia gave up 25.5 shots a game, fourth-fewest in the NHL, and scored 2.93 goals a game while allowing 2.91. That profile produces close games, the main risk in any legal sports betting moneyline on an underdog, and Dan Vladar has already shown he can steal one. Pittsburgh’s 290 goals came on a 12.4% shooting percentage, fourth in the league and the number most likely to slip, and a defense that ranked 24th in goals against gives Philadelphia’s 21st-ranked offense a path.
