- The Predators are +122 and the Wild are -142, so a Nashville ticket breaks even at a 45.0% win rate.
- Minnesota is without defenseman Brock Faber, who averaged 24:41 a game last season, and goaltender Filip Gustavsson.
- Nashville went 2-0-2 against Minnesota last season, and all four games were decided by one goal.
- Jesper Wallstedt’s .915 save percentage last season topped Gustavsson’s .904, so the goalie change matters less than losing Faber.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The Nashville Predators moneyline at +122 is the best bet in Thursday’s season opener against the Minnesota Wild,. The Wild enter without defenseman Brock Faber, who fractured his skull in the preseason, and goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who is recovering from hip surgery.
Predators +122, Wild -142 On The Board
The NHL betting odds for the opener make Minnesota a road favorite.
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Predators moneyline | +122 | 45.0% |
| Wild moneyline | -142 | 58.7% |
| Predators +1.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Wild -1.5 | +178 | 36.0% |
| Over 6 | -112 | 52.8% |
| Under 6 | -108 | 51.9% |
The Predators won 38 of 82 games last season, or 46.3%, so +122 asks Nashville to win 1.3 points less often than it did. At -142 the Wild need 58.7%, against the 56.1% they won (46 of 82) with Faber in the lineup for 80 games. The favorite’s price asks for 2.6 points more than Minnesota’s win rate with Faber, before any adjustment for the injuries.
The puck line costs more. Predators +1.5 at -215 needs 68.3%, though all four meetings last season ended within a goal. The total is 6, against 6.5 on other boards, and the four meetings averaged 6.0 goals.
Faber’s Fractured Skull Splits The Wild’s Top Pair
Wild general manager Bill Guerin announced Tuesday that Faber fractured his skull when a puck hit his head in the preseason finale Friday, that surgery Sunday was successful and that no return date exists. He averaged 24:41 a game last season, roughly two of every five minutes, and scored 51 points in 80 games.
The Star Tribune reported that Quinn Hughes now pairs with Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin with Olli Maatta and Daemon Hunt with Zach Bogosian, which ends a Hughes-Faber pairing that lasted half a season. That pushes depth defensemen into larger roles against a Predators roster the team calls fully healthy.
Wallstedt Is Not A Downgrade On Last Season’s Numbers
Gustavsson, 28, is on injured reserve after offseason hip surgery and is expected back later this fall. Jesper Wallstedt, 23, went 18-9-6 with a 2.61 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage in 35 games last season, against Gustavsson’s .904 over 50. Thirty-five games is a thin sample, and Wallstedt slipped to .909 in 10 playoff games.
Juuse Saros posted a .894 last season and a .895 the year before against a .912 career mark, though he is 10-3-3 with a .921 save percentage in 16 career games against Minnesota. He and Wallstedt are the expected starters. With the goalie matchup tilting toward the Wild on recent form, the pick rests on the defense and the price, not on Saros.
Expected Goals Narrow The Wild’s Edge
MoneyPuck’s model gave Minnesota a 52% expected-goals share last season (265.9 expected goals for, 242.9 against) and Nashville 48% (251.1, 269.8). The Wild’s goal differential of plus-33 beat its expected plus-23 by 10 goals, about eight of them on defense, while the Predators’ minus-25 ran about six below their expected minus-19.
At expected-goal levels the gap between the teams is about 0.5 goals a game, down from 0.7 in actual goals, which trims the Wild’s edge before Faber’s absence is counted. Corsi, the share of shot attempts, was 49% for Minnesota and 50% for Nashville, so the edge came from shot quality, not volume, and that leans on a defense that just lost a 24-minute player.
All Four Meetings Last Season Were One-Goal Games
The Predators lost 3-2 in overtime Nov. 4, won 3-2 in overtime Dec. 23, lost 6-5 in overtime Feb. 4 and won 2-1 on April 11, and each team scored 12 goals across the four. Nashville is 5-1-4 in its last 10 meetings with Minnesota, according to the team’s game notes.
The risk is a slow start. Nashville opened last season 5-8-4 through 17 games, and defenseman Brady Skjei said this week the club cannot dig itself another hole. Minnesota won 46 games and a playoff round last season, and a one-game sample is the main risk in any underdog moneyline at legal sports betting sites.
Minnesota plays its home opener Saturday, Oct. 3, against the Boston Bruins.
