Patrick Mahomes - CJ Stroud

  • Patrick Mahomes passing touchdown total is set at 1.5.
  • CJ Stroud’s odds for his passing yard total are set at 227.5.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The NFL Divisional Round kicks off with an absolute banger between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans in what could be a classic showdown of QBs with Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud facing off.

Both Mahomes and Stroud are going to have plenty of props to choose from on legal sports betting sites and bettors will find several odds of value.

Fade Mahomes TDs Vs. Strong Texans Secondary

Patrick Mahomes Total Passing TDs

  • Over 1.5 -170
  • Under 1.5 +130

This is a great plus money spot to take on Mahomes as this Texans defense has really locked in over their last five games against the pass. Through their previous five games, only Lamar Jackson in Week 17 has thrown for over 1.5 TDs against this Texans defense.

They’ve allowed just three passing TDs to opposing QBs in the other four games which includes Patrick Mahomes in Week 16 where he finished with 260 and a touchdown.

One eye opening stat here is that in those four games that they’ve held opposing QBs under 1.5 touchdowns, three of them have thrown for 32+ passing attempts and were only able to toss just one in the endzone.

As for Mahomes, while he is top-10 in passing TDs this season, it has slowed down in his last five games having thrown for just one touchdown in three of those matchups. Bettors should also take into consideration that odds on NFL sportsbooks are already heavily in favor of the Chiefs winning. That said, if the odds hold true and Kansas City runs away with it, it could limit how many times Mahomes passes through the game meaning less chance of throwing multiple TDs.

Take Stroud Over In Positive Game Script

  • Over 227.5 -115
  • Under 227.5 -115

It’s hard to imagine why oddsmakers have such a low total set for CJ Stroud. He’s gone over this mark 11 times this season. It’s also worth mentioning that in the 11 games that he’s gone over that mark, he’s thrown for over 30 attempts in each of them. Taking a look at the betting lines, he has -130 odds to go over 34.5 pass attempts.

Positive game script will also play a huge role for Stroud in this one. Contrary to the script having a negative impact on Mahomes’ touchdown total, it should work heavily in favor of Stroud. With a massive spread in this one, and the Texans likely playing from behind, it leaves them no choice but to throw to keep up with a high-powered offense in Kansas City.

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