Joe Burrow

  • Joe Burrow’s averages in close games, non-divisional games, and against the Kansas City Chiefs suggest that the over is a strong bet for his passing yards, completions, and touchdown props.
  • Joe Burrow’s opportunity and execution as a red zone runner make his touchdown scoring props excellent bets in the AFC Championship Game.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Joe Burrow prop bets in the AFC Championship Game take center stage, with the star quarterbacks past games against the Kansas City Chiefs, non-AFC North opponents, and close games suggesting that they nearly all go over.

Joe Burrow Passing Props

NFL betting sites have set many of Joe Burrow’s passing props too low:

  • Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop: 277.5 Yards (Over: -115; Under: -115)
  • Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop: 38.5 Attempts (Over: -115; Under: -115)
  • Joe Burrow Completions Prop: 25.5 Completions (Over: -115; Under: -115)
  • Joe Burrow Touchdown Prop: 1.5 Touchdowns (Over: -190; Under: +145)
  • Joe Burrow Interceptions Prop: 0.5 Interceptions (Over: EVEN; Under: -130)

Those passing yards, completions, and touchdown props at legal sports betting sites are too low and should be bet over based on Burrow’s performance against three different subsets of opponents:

  • Joe Burrow vs Non-AFC North Opponents: 26.2 Completions/36.8 Attempts/283.7 Yards/2.3 Touchdowns/0.3 Interceptions
  • Joe Burrow in Games with a Spread between +6.5 and -6.5: 25.6 Completions/37.2 Attempts/289.2 Yards/2.5 Touchdowns/0.6 Interceptions
  • Joe Burrow vs the Kansas City Chiefs: 26 Completions/36 Attempts/327.3 Yards/2.7 Touchdowns/0.3 Interceptions

All of those qualifiers apply to Joe Burrow’s matchup versus the Chiefs on Sunday, with Kansas favored by 1.5 points at Bovada.

Joe Burrow averages more completions, yards, and touchdown passes when using his past matchups in similar situations, making the over the best bet for all three.

Despite more completions, Burrow’s pass attempts average suggest that is the best prop to either bet the under or is a stay-away bet.

Joe Burrow Rushing Props

For bettors looking for longer odds, it may be best to look at some of Joe Burrow’s rushing props:

  • Joe Burrow Rushing Yards: 17.5 Yards (Over: -115; Under: -115)
  • Joe Burrow Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +475
  • Joe Burrow First Touchdown Scorer: +2500

Burrow has rushed for over 17.5 yards in just one of his past six games, so bettors should be focusing on his touchdown-scoring props.

Burrow has gotten opportunities to run in the red zone this season and has capitalized:

  • Joe Burrow has rushed for five touchdowns this season, including one versus the Chiefs in Week 13.
  • Joe Burrow has attempted 28% of the Bengals’ runs inside the ten-yard line, with that percentage increasing to 31.8% inside the five.

With long +475 odds as an anytime touchdown scorer and +2500 odds to be the first touchdown scorer, Joe Burrow’s touchdown props are a worthy flier in the AFC Championship Game.

Are you getting in on the Joe Burrow props at Bovada?

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