- Clemson is rarely a favorite of fewer than two touchdowns, but when they are they are a great bet to cover the spread.
- Syracuse has been a great story at college football sportsbooks, but as they get into the tough part of the schedule it is wise to bet against them.
CLEMSON, S.C. – Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers are large favorites against the Syracuse Orange in Saturday’s matchup of the last two unbeaten teams in the ACC.
At Bovada, Swinney and the Tigers will be either a 13.5 or 14-point favorite when they make the sprint out of the tunnel in Death Valley.
Clemson Tigers vs Syracuse Orange Odds
|Syracuse (#14)||+13.5 (-105)||+390||O49.5 (-110)|
|Clemson (#5)||-13.5 (-115)||-550||U49.5 (-110)|
Despite the spread getting close to two touchdowns, college football sportsbooks are still not giving the Tigers enough credit.
Betting on Clemson to Cover
Clemson and Syracuse are both undefeated this season and have only played one common opponent, North Carolina State.
Both teams won by 10 or more points, but those victories were not the same. Star NC State quarterback Devin Leary was out for Syracuse’s victory and the Orange were still only favored by three points on the road.
Consider that when Clemson faced NC State, Leary was healthy, NC State was undefeated and ranked 10th in the AP Poll, and Clemson was still favored by 6.5 points.
Outside The Matchups
Betting on Clemson is not strictly a bet on their one common opponent though, it’s a bet on their history against good teams.
Clemson has a recent history in college football that is matched by only a handful of programs, so when they are favored by 14 points or less that means that they are playing a team that is perceived to be pretty good.
Clemson has won their last eight games as a favorite of 14 points or less and covered in six of those games.
Turning it the other way, in Syracuse’s last eight games as an underdog of 14-points or less they have won twice.
Winning is not expected as an underdog, which means their 5-3 record against the spread means they have put up good fights. The issue with their spread record is that they are 1-3 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 14 points or less, meaning they got carried by an early-season hot streak last season.
Betting Against Syracuse
Syracuse has been one of the most fun stories in the country this season, but the fact that they are ranked only 14th in the AP Poll and are 13.5-point underdogs indicates that they are doing well as a byproduct of their schedule and may be considered a fraudulent 6-0 team.
The players can only win games that are scheduled, but the only team they have played that is ranked is NC State and they did not have their quarterback.
Legal sportsbooks also see warning signs when looking back to last season.
Syracuse started the season 3-1 with wins over lesser programs such as Ohio, Rutgers, Albany, and Liberty, and then once they got to ACC play, they went 2-6.
With so many signs pointing towards Syracuse as a regression candidate, it is best to bet on Clemson to cover the spread in this week’s ACC showdown.
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.