- Alabama is a 7.5-point favorite over San Diego State with -360 odds to win outright.
- Brandon Miller to score 18+ points and Alabama to win has +121 odds.
- In games where Miller has played over 20 minutes, he had 18 or more points in eight of his last 10 games.
LOUISVILLE – The No. 1 seeded Alabama Crimson Tide square off with the No. 5 seeded San Diego State Aztecs as 7.5-point favorites in a Sweet Sixteen matchup. All-American Brandon Miller will look to continue his incredible season and help Alabama advance to the Elite Eight.
There are +121 odds for Brandon Miller to have 18+ points and Alabama to win.
Brandon Miller to Have 18+ Points and Alabama to Win (+121)
Brandon Miller has been Alabama’s best player and has been nothing short of incredible all season long. The projected lottery pick has led the Crimson Tide to the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State (+280) presents a difficult opponent for Alabama. The Aztecs are 21 in the country in experience and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
However, Alabama has the recipe to beat this tough defense. It comes from their tempo, which ranks fifth among over 360 qualifying Division-1 men’s basketball teams.
Brandon Miller and the Crimson Tide average 72.6 possessions per 40 minutes according to Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings. This incredible pace is the fastest out of all the remaining tournament teams and nets over six extra possessions than San Diego State, who rank 263rd in the nation.
This metric surely doesn’t mean that San Diego is a bad defensive team, especially considering Houston places last in tempo out of the remaining tournament teams. However, it does mean that star players Brandon Miller and Jahvon Quinerly will get more opportunities to score and wear down the Aztec defense.
Brandon Miller scored 19 points in their Round of 32 victory over Maryland despite shooting 5/17 from the floor.
Miller found his way to the free throw line eight times, making seven of those attempts.
Teams know that Alabama is going to run their offense through Miller, yet he still manages to find a way to score over 18 points frequently.
Excluding their first-round win where Miller only played 19 minutes, the star forward has scored 18 or more in five straight games. In games this season where Brandon Miller scores at least 18 points, the Crimson Tide are 18-3, with their three losses coming against UConn, Gonzaga, and Texas A&M.
In other words, he is scoring 18 or more in over 58% of Alabama’s games this season.
Brandon Miller’s player performance double on college basketball betting sites for him to score 18+ points and Alabama to win is valuable with +121 odds.
Jahvon Quinerly To have 2+ Three-Pointers Made and Alabama to Win (-137)
Jahvon Quinerly shows up on the biggest stage, especially from three-point range. The point guard has emerged as one of Alabama’s most efficient scorers, shooting over 38% from three in his last six games.
In Alabama’s most recent game, Quinerly made four of his six three-point attempts, providing a critical offensive presence against Maryland. In the SEC Championship game against Texas A&M, Quinerly went four for eight from deep in the Alabama win.
Quinerly is shooting 57% from behind the arc in these must-win games, giving value to the +121 odds on legal betting sites for Quinerly to make 2+ three-pointers and Alabama to win vs San Diego State.
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Zach graduated from Florida State University with a degree in Writing, Editing, and Media. Zach is interested in the legalization aspect of sports betting and enjoys participating in DFS. He has a passion for sports writing and most enjoys writing about football and baseball both professional and collegiate.