- With Nasty Nestor Cortes on the mound, betting on the New York Yankees to cover as a -1.5 favorite versus the Cleveland Guardians is the best bet for Game Five with +135 odds.
- Betting the runline in this matchup may be a stronger bet than the moneyline because of past Yankees performances and the better odds with minimal additional risk.
NEW YORK – Following last night’s rain delay, first pitch for the Cleveland Guardians versus the New York Yankees is expected to be thrown by Aaron Civale at 4:07 pm.
Bovada currently has the Yankees favored for the winner take all matchup, with their +135 odds on the -1.5 runline offering the most value in the game.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Odds
|Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale (R))||+1.5 (-160)||+143||O7.0 (+105)|
|New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes (L))||-1.5 (+135)||-174||U7.0 (-125)|
Betting on the Nasty Nestor
Despite the presence of Gerrit Cole on the team, the New York Yankees have their 2022 ace on the mound against the Guardians today when Nestor Cortes takes the mound.
Cortes was at one point a very serious contender for the AL Cy Young award this season, only really falling back in the race because of a lack of innings pitched and a poor stretch in late June and early July that caused his ERA to balloon up to 2.74.
For reference, that 2.74 ERA would still have ranked 11th in the entire American League this season.
Since then, Nestor Cortes has earned back his nickname of “Nasty Nestor”. His past five games, including his Game Two start versus the Guardians on October 14th, have produced some particularly impressive statistics that make backing him and the Yankees by the runline at MLB sportsbooks a strong bet:
- Four earned runs in 28.1 innings, giving him a 0.8 ERA over that span.
- Five innings pitched or more in each game, never allowing more than two earned runs during that stretch.
- Cortes has allowed only one home run in his last 32.1 innings pitched, although that was to Ahmad Rosario in Game Two.
Cortes’s season particularly lends itself to the Yankees covering the runline, because it was built on quality over quantity.
He was a great pitcher based on ERA, but not a high-volume innings eater. That is fine in a game like tonight’s because each team will be willing to use nearly every one of their pitchers.
Betting on the Runline over the Moneyline
A look at the game log for this series makes it clear why betting the runline is a better bet than the moneyline.
The likelihood of the winning team winning by only one run is simply not high enough for Yankees bettors to sacrifice the increased payout of betting on them to cover the runline in this matchup.
One game so far in this series has been won by one run or less as every other winning was by at least two runs, including both the Yankees wins.
The Yankees also won 68 of their games this season by two runs or more this season. In Nestor Cortes’s starts that rate has been even better, as in his 12 wins they have won by at least two or more runs 11 times.
With legal sports betting sites offering +135 odds for the Yankees to cover the runline compared to -174 odds via moneyline, betting on New York to cover with Nasty Nestor is the best bet for Game Five of the ALDS at legal sports betting sites.
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News tags: Bovada | Cleveland Guardians | Gerrit Cole | MLB | Nestor Cortes | New York Yankees
Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.