- The Los Angeles Chargers host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football in a matchup headlined by Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
- Bets on the under for Justin Herbert passing props is a strong option given a change in play style over the past eight weeks.
Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear over the past five weeks, with overs on his passing yards and passing touchdowns good bets.
LOS ANGELES – In the matchup between quarterbacks who were selected fifth and sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, it is only right to focus on player props for each star quarterback.
Outside of just the storylines surrounding the quarterbacks themselves, players would be wise to bet on each passer based on the game’s high total at Bovada.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds
|Miami Dolphins||-3.0 (-120)||-175||O 52.5 (-110)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3.0 (EVEN)||+150||U 52.5 (-110)|
Betting on Justin Herbert Passing Props
NFL sportsbooks seaming put a lot of faith in the Los Angeles Chargers changing their offensive game plan simply because of Mike Williams’ impending return.
Specifically, the Chargers are no longer a big-play offense like they were at the beginning of the season.
They have Justin Herbert attempting and completing, shorter passes, and his statistics have suffered as a result.
This change in play style can be seen when comparing his statistics from the first four games of the season to the following eight games:
- Justin Herbert First 4 Game Averages: 27.75 completions on 41.5 attempts for 312.5 yards per game, 2.25 passing TDs to only 0.5 interceptions per game
- Justin Herbert Past 8 Game Averages: 28.63 completions on 43 attempts for 261.13 yards per game, 1.38 passing TDs to only .63 interceptions per game
Mike Williams may be returning, but this trend predates his most recent injury.
With those play style trends over the past eight games in mind, two of the best bets on Justin Herbert are:
- Under 287.5 Passing Yards -115
- Under 37.5 Yard Longest Completion -115
Betting on Tua Tagovailoa Passing Props
- Over 279.5 Yards (-114): Tua has passed for at least 285 yards in each of his past five games, averaging 312 passing yards per game over that stretch.
- Under 0.5 Interceptions (-110): After two interceptions in Miami’s last game, Tua has now passed for a total of two interceptions in his last five games. That’s four of his past games with no interceptions.
- Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-205): Two touchdown passes or more in four of Tua’s past five games after only one game with two or more touchdown passes in his first five this season.
Are you betting on Tua Tagovailoa in this matchup of former top ten picks?
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.