- The Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants on Thanksgiving Day, with the total set at 45.5 points.
- Early season trends suggest that the 45.5-point total is much too high, making the under the best bet for the game.
DALLAS – The Dallas Cowboys tradition of playing on Thanksgiving Day started in 1966 and continues in 2022 when the Dak Prescott-led team hosts the New York Giants as 9.5-point favorites on the national holiday.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Odds
|New York Giants||+9.5 (-110)||+325||O45.5 (-110)|
|Dallas Cowboys||-9.5 (-110)||-435||U45.5 (-110)|
Betting the Under in Dallas
Legal NFL sportsbooks have set the total for this game at 45.5 points, although all trends point to this game going considerably under that total:
- Season Long Under Trends: Cowboys and Giants bettors alike have had the exact same success when betting on their teams to win or cover the spread in each of their team’s ten games this season, with both NFC East rivals going 7-3 straight up and ATS. Where bettors have not been able to find success is betting the over, as the over/under record for the Cowboys is 4-6 and an even worse 3-7 for the Giants.
- Season Long Point Totals: The 45.5-point total is a curious choice by Bovada that is likely to payout bettors on the under because both teams have had a combined four out of their 20 games this season go over that total. That 20% success rate for players if they had bet the over at 45.5 for each game does not point to two teams interested in winning shootouts.
- Defenses: Micah Parsons and his outright favorite status to win Defensive Player of the Year has dominated much of the talk for the Dallas Cowboys defense, but the team itself deserves plenty of credit. The Cowboys have held opposing teams to 16.7 points per game, which is the best in the league for a defense. The Giants rank 13th in points allowed per game at 20.4 ppg, but that average is skewed by the Lions scoring 31 points on the G-Men last week.
The more popular bet at legal sportsbooks on Thanksgiving may be on America’s Team to cover because of their home crowd, the recent dominant form of the Cowboys, or even because of that Giants loss versus Detroit last week, but the opportunity to bet the under at such a relatively high total is the clear best bet in this matchup between NFC East teams on Thanksgiving.
Are you trailing under bets on this Thanksgiving matchup between NFC East rivals?
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.