- UConn is a two point underdog in their Final Four game against Illinois after pulling off an improbable comeback against Duke.
- Michigan is a -115 favorite over Arizona in their semifinal game. The one point spread indicates a true toss up.
INDIANAPOLIS – After an unbelievable finish to the Elite Eight this weekend, the Final Four matchups are now set for Saturday night. Here’s a look at odds and picks for each game with a chance to head to the national championship.
#3 Illinois vs #2 UConn Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | -2.0 (-110) | -135 | O 140.0 (-110) |
| UConn | +2.0 (-110) | +115 | U 140.0 (-110) |
Legal sports betting sites list Illinois as a slight favorite over the higher seeded UConn Huskies, giving them a two point cushion and -135 odds to reach their first national championship since 2005.
Bettors should roll with the Illini to cover the spread, as they’ve been one of the most dominant teams for the duration of the tournament.
While they’ve been solid across the board, the two factors that have been the driving force of Illinois’ success are offensive rebounding and limiting opponent free throws.
During the tournament, the Illini have rebounded 45.8% of their own misses. For reference, only two teams had an offensive rebound rate over 40% over the course of the season (Tennessee and Florida).
Defensively, they’ve held opponents to a free throw rate of just 9.8, according to barttorvik.com and had the lowest opponent free throw rate in the country at 19.5 throughout the entire season.
They also have a pair of seven footers to match up with Tarris Reed Jr., who’s looked unstoppable at times for the Huskies.
Illinois appears to be the better team on paper and have plenty of momentum heading into the Final Four.
#1 Michigan vs #1 Arizona Game Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | -1.0 (-115) | -115 | O 157.5 (-110) |
| Arizona | +1.0 (-105) | -105 | U 157.5 (-110) |
Michigan is ever so slightly favored over Arizona at March Madness betting sites, with -115 odds and a one point spread essentially making it a toss up.
However, Arizona is the best bet to win this game, graded as the top team in the tournament on barttorvik.com.
The Wildcats have a 40.9% offensive rebound rate, 57.3 free throw rate (#1 in the tournament) and have held opponents to just 27.9% from three, which will be important as Michigan has shot 44.6% from three in the tournament so far.
Michigan’s offense has been a problem for opponents, ranking second in the tournament in overall efficiency and effective field goal percentage, but Arizona has been elite defensively all year long and just shut down the most efficient offense all season long in Purdue.
Freshman Koa Peat matches up well with Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg and each team has a 7+ foot center to clog the paint.
This one should be a slugfest, but Arizona’s elite offensive rebounding and ability to draw fouls may be the deciding factor in what could shape up to be one of the best Final Four matchups in recent memory.
