Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is an elite talent, but the combination of his ankle injury and the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense makes the best bet on his passing props on the under.
  • Even with the unknown factor of his ankle, Patrick Mahomes’ touchdown scoring odds may be worthwhile flier based on his playoff history and success on the ground this season.

KANSAS CITY, Mo.Patrick Mahomes takes the field in the AFC Championship Game versus the Cincinnati Bengals with many of his passing props poised to go under their totals.

Betting the Under on Mahomes’ Passing Props

With a lot of positive news coming out in the past few days about the healing process for his left ankle, NFL sportsbooks have responded by setting their two main Patrick Mahomes passing props too high:

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop: 282.5 Yards (Over: -115; Under: -115)
  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns Prop: 2.5 Touchdowns (Over: +150; Under: -200)

As a soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP, betting the under on Patrick Mahomes’ passing props is not a slight at his ability as it is more a nod to the Bengals’ success on defense versus the pass.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense vs Quarterbacks

  • Cincinnati has given up just 239.00 passing yards per game, allowing only five passers to throw for at least 282.5 yards.
  • Tom Brady is the only quarterback to throw for three or more touchdowns versus the Bengals this season back in Week 15.
  • The Bengals had the fourth-highest quarterback knockdown rate in the NFL at 12.2%, despite a 20.4% blitz rate that would be in the bottom third of the NFL.

With Patrick Mahomes on a gimpy leg and going up against a defense that has been excellent against opposing quarterbacks, betting the under on Mahomes’ passing props is a strong bet.

Betting on a Patrick Mahomes Rushing Touchdown

The overall uncertainty regarding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle has caused legal sports betting sites to offer longer odds than they likely should on him to score a touchdown:

  • Patrick Mahomes to Score a Touchdown: +725
  • Patrick Mahomes to Score the First Touchdown: +3000

Mahomes has yet to open any of the Chiefs’ games this season with a non-passing touchdown, making his first touchdown odds a shot in the dark.

Two trends support simply betting on Mahomes to score a touchdown at any point in the AFC Championship Game:

  • Mahomes has scored a rushing touchdown in five of his 12 career playoff games.
  • Mahomes had four rushing touchdowns this season, with one coming against Cincinnati in Week 13.

Betting on a Patrick Mahomes rushing touchdown has clear risks outside of just his injured ankle, but with a history of rushing touchdowns in the playoffs and this season, it is worth taking a flier on a bet with +725 odds.

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