- The Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs at Green Bay on Thursday night, down from opening lines of 7 and 7.5.
- Michael Penix Jr. has not played since a Week 11 ACL tear last November closed out his 2025 season.
- Atlanta is 0-2, with Pittsburgh and Carolina outscoring them 54-16 across the two losses.
- Atlanta’s moneyline is +215, and the total for Thursday’s game is set at 43 points.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Michael Penix Jr. gets the Atlanta start at Green Bay on Thursday night, his first game since the ACL tear that ended his 2025 season last November. The Packers’ spread over the Falcons has shrunk to 4.5 points from openers of 7 and 7.5 since Atlanta confirmed Penix as its starter this week.
The Line Moves With The Certainty
Green Bay opened as a 7- to 7.5-point favorite over Atlanta, depending on the book, before the Falcons had settled their quarterback situation, and the number has come in at least 2.5 points since Atlanta named Penix the starter on Monday, as ESPN reported. The Packers are now -4.5, with 5.5 still posted in places, and -260 on the moneyline, with the Falcons at +215 and the total set at 43.
A move of 2.5 to three points off a backup-to-starter announcement is a large swing for a single week, and it means most of the value in Atlanta’s opening number is gone from the legal sports betting board before kickoff.
The Delta Since Monday
Atlanta was still undecided at quarterback as of Monday morning, when Penix was only trending toward a Falcons start from the ACL tear that ended his 2025 season. Atlanta sits at 0-2, its losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina adding up to a 54-16 deficit, and backup Cooper Rush was pulled in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss.
What Penix Brings To Lambeau
Over nine starts last season before the injury, Penix hit 60.1% of his throws for 1,982 yards, threw nine touchdowns against three interceptions, and posted an 88.5 rating built more on efficiency than volume. His numbers split hard by site: a 104.7 rating at home against 76.7 on the road, a gap that puts extra weight on a true road test against a Green Bay defense that has allowed a 64.6% completion rate and forced just one interception through two games.
Kickoff for the Thursday Night Football matchup is set for 8:15 p.m. Eastern at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay can push Atlanta to 0-3 while Penix makes his return under center.
