- Florida is a 5.5-point favorite at Missouri, with moneylines of -220 for the Gators and +180 for the Tigers.
- The total is 57.5, four points above its opening number, with Florida averaging 53.5 points a game.
- Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 31-24 loss at Mississippi State.
COLUMBIA, Mo. – The Florida Missouri odds have moved three points toward the Gators since opening, making Florida a 5.5-point road favorite after a 52-28 win over the then-No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels. The Florida Gators (4-0, No. 8 in the AP Top 25) visit the Missouri Tigers (3-1, No. 25) at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.
Florida Beat Its Number By 20 Points
The Ole Miss result was an upset only in the poll. Florida closed as a 4-point home favorite, so its 24-point margin cleared the number by 20 points, and the AP Top 25 moved the Gators 13 spots, from No. 21 to No. 8. The market’s response here was smaller, with Florida opening a 2.5-point favorite at Missouri before last weekend and now sitting at 5.5.
Missouri’s loss landed nearer its number. The Tigers closed as 3.5-point underdogs at the Mississippi State Bulldogs and lost by seven points.
| Market | Opening odds | Current odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida -2.5 | Florida -5.5 |
| Total | 53.5 | 57.5 |
| Florida moneyline | -130 | -220 |
| Missouri moneyline | +110 | +180 |
That is a three-point move for a 20-point beat, a college football betting market discounting one game rather than chasing it. In states with legal sports betting, tickets written on Florida at the opening 2.5 hold three points of line value that the 5.5 no longer offers. At -220, a Florida moneyline ticket needs the Gators to win about 69 percent of the time to break even.
The Total Moved More Than The Side
The total rose four points, a point more than the spread, and nearly all the new scoring went to Florida. Splitting the spread and total, the opening numbers pointed to a score near Florida 28, Missouri 25.5, and today’s point to 31.5-26.
Florida has scored at least 44 in all four games, though two of those wins came against Florida Atlantic and Campbell, and it allowed 39 at Auburn and 28 to Ole Miss in its two SEC games. Austin Simmons has 947 passing yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception, including 295 yards and three touchdowns at Mississippi State. A Missouri share that rose only half a point is the softer half of the number.
