- The Jacksonville Jaguars went from +125 to -125 to win the AFC South after a 35-6 home rout of the New England Patriots.
- The Baltimore Ravens went from +105 to -135 for the AFC North after a 34-31 last-second win over the Dallas Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro.
- All four AFC North teams are 2-1, yet the Bengals sit at +180, the Steelers at +900 and the Browns at +2500.
- The 0-3 Houston Texans slid from +135 to +275 after losing to the Indianapolis Colts, yet still price shorter than Indianapolis at +350.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens both flipped to minus-money favorites in the AFC division odds after Sunday’s wins. Jacksonville moved from +125 to -125 to win the AFC South, and Baltimore from +105 to -135 to win the AFC North.
Jacksonville’s Rout Makes It The South’s Clear Leader
The Jaguars beat the Patriots at EverBank Stadium, moving them to 2-1 and a game clear of the 1-2 Colts. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes to three different receivers, and Jacksonville took the ball away three times, including a Travis Hunter interception in the end zone.
The efficiency data backs the scoreboard. Through three games Jacksonville ranks fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play at 0.13 and third in EPA allowed at -0.10, the only one of the eight North and South teams ranked in the top five on either side of the ball. Its 46-point scoring margin is nearly three times the next-best mark in the two divisions, Cincinnati’s 17.
That makes the move look earned rather than chased. The caveats are that three games is short of the four to six that team EPA needs to settle, and the figures are not adjusted for opponent or garbage time. Jacksonville has also yet to play a division game, with wins over Cleveland and New England and a loss at Denver.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record
- 2-1
- Previous
- +125
- Odds
- -125
- Implies
- 55.6%
Houston Texans
- Record
- 0-3
- Previous
- +135
- Odds
- +275
- Implies
- 26.7%
Indianapolis Colts
- Record
- 1-2
- Previous
- +500
- Odds
- +350
- Implies
- 22.2%
Tennessee Titans
- Record
- 0-3
- Previous
- +3300
- Odds
- +3500
- Implies
- 2.8%
Houston Still Prices Ahead Of Indianapolis At 0-3
The Texans lost 19-17 at Indianapolis on Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal, their third straight defeat. Their price lengthened 15.9 implied points, the largest slide on either board. Houston is still the second choice, ahead of a Colts team that is 1-2, owns the head-to-head win and is 1-0 in the division to Houston’s 0-1.
The efficiency numbers do not explain the gap. Indianapolis ranks 11th in offensive EPA per play against Houston’s 25th, while Houston’s defense ranks 22nd to the Colts’ 29th, and neither is a good mark. Houston was still +135 at 0-2 a week ago, and even the longer +275 asks for a comeback from two games behind Jacksonville with 14 to play.
Baltimore’s Favored Odds Rests On Lamar Jackson’s Offense
Tyler Loop’s 56-yard field goal with one second left beat Dallas after a long Lamar Jackson completion to Zay Flowers set it up. Baltimore is 2-1 and now carries a steeper minus than the -115 it held before losing to the New Orleans Saints in Week 2.
The offense earns the price. Baltimore leads the league in early-down EPA per play at 0.23 and ranks eighth in overall offensive EPA per play at 0.11. The defense is the exposure, 21st in EPA allowed at 0.05, and it gave away an 11-point second-half lead for the second straight week. Safety Kyle Hamilton said it is “unacceptable for us to keep putting ourselves in this position” in the fourth quarter.
The AFC North Is A Four-Way Tie At 2-1
Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all sit at 2-1, and the division race has one tiebreak marker so far. The Steelers beat the Bengals 30-27 when Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Joe Burrow ended Cincinnati’s last drive, so Pittsburgh is 1-0 in the division and Cincinnati is 0-1. The Bengals fell from +110 to +180, the largest slide in the North.
Cincinnati still grades slightly ahead of Baltimore. The Bengals rank ninth in net EPA per play, offense minus defense, to the Ravens’ 10th, and their +17 scoring margin tops Baltimore’s +14. The difference between +180 and -135 therefore comes down to Baltimore’s offense and Cincinnati’s 0-1 division record, not to overall efficiency.
Pittsburgh’s +900 is the longer bet. The Steelers’ defense ranks seventh in EPA allowed, but their offense ranks 26th at -0.09 per play and their scoring margin is -7, so the price assumes the defense and the division-record lead outlast an offense in the league’s bottom seven. Cleveland beat the Carolina Panthers 21-18 to reach 2-1 and ranks 20th on offense and 23rd on defense.
Baltimore Ravens
- Record
- 2-1
- Previous
- +105
- Odds
- -135
- Implies
- 57.4%
Cincinnati Bengals
- Record
- 2-1
- Previous
- +110
- Odds
- +180
- Implies
- 35.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Record
- 2-1
- Previous
- +1200
- Odds
- +900
- Implies
- 10.0%
Cleveland Browns
- Record
- 2-1
- Previous
- +3300
- Odds
- +2500
- Implies
- 3.8%
Jaguars Are 2.5-Point Underdogs At Cincinnati Next
Across legal sports betting markets, the division board and the game board disagree. Jacksonville visits Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 4, as a 2.5-point underdog even though the Jaguars are -125 for the AFC South and the Bengals are +180 for the AFC North. Baltimore hosts the 0-3 Tennessee Titans the same day as an 11.5-point favorite.
The AFC North’s only division game of the week comes first. Pittsburgh visits Cleveland at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1, and Thursday Night Football betting odds have the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites.
