- Kalshi traders win more than stock day traders and sports bettors, according to Kalshi Head of Communications Elisabeth Diana.
- While Kalshi emphasizes that they aren’t a sportsbook, they continue to compare themselves to sportsbooks.
- Kalshi conducted an internal profitability analysis and gave the data to the Wall Street Journal for a story, which ultimately backfired.
NEW YORK – Kalshi claims to not be a sportsbook and doesn’t offer “betting”, instead offering contracts. However, when it’s time to compare their profitability to other financial exchanges, they measure up against legal sports betting sites and stock day trading based on bogus data points.
WSJ came to us with a profitability analysis of public Kalshi profiles. Which was inaccurate, because the majority of traders keep their profiles private. So we did the analysis ourselves and gave it to the WSJ. Our analysis showed that Kalshi traders win more than they do on day… https://t.co/aJ4oG0XB7H— Elisabeth Diana (@ediyork) May 4, 2026
The tweet posted by Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s Head of Communications, claims that “Our analysis showed that Kalshi traders win more than they do on day trading, options, sportsbooks, and futures.” Although people should take caution when the company being studied conducts the study, it’s hard to ignore the sources used in the comparison graph for stock day trading, options, and futures.
A 2004 publication analyzing the Taiwan stock exchange market from 1995-1999 is the source for claiming 80% of day traders are in the negative. Is a 20+ year old data point the best evidence for contemporary day trading profit analysis?
Kalshi Giving Wall Street Journal Data Points Backfires
When the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) began gathering Kalshi profile data for a story on profitability of prediction market apps, Kalshi pushed back and claimed that the data is skewed since most users keep their profiles private. Kalshi then conducted an internal profitability analysis and delivered that data to the WSJ, who found that casual traders are getting crushed by trading firms, creating a 3:1 ratio of unprofitable to profitable “traders”.
Even though Kalshi claims to not be “gambling” or “betting”, they do a lot of arguing in federal court that they aren’t just that. Now, Kalshi boosts themselves up by citing their lower gambling loss rates compared to sportsbooks.
