- Kalshi’s pricing on markets during Week 17 of the NFL season was up to 8% more expensive than that of legal online sportsbooks.
- DraftKings’ own prediction market was about twice as expensive as their own sportsbook odds.
LAS VEGAS – Recent tracking by Citizens found that Kalshi’s pricing for games during Week 17 of the NFL season was significantly worse than that of major sportsbooks in the US.
The study found that odds offered prior to each game were around 6-8% worse on average when comparing Kalshi to sportsbooks.
This research comes in the wake of DraftKings and FanDuel launching their own prediction markets, which have been a much-maligned subject in the sports betting world in recent weeks/months.
This comes as good news for these established legal sports betting sites, as it offers even more reason for users to prefer their platform over sites like Kalshi and Crypto.com, who offer contracts at worse prices.
FanDuel’s implied pricing led all three in Week 17 at 4.42%, followed by DraftKings at 4.5% and Kalshi trailing at 4.77%, which was lower than their Week 16 mark of 4.94%.
An interesting note is that DraftKings’ prediction markets ended up with significantly worse pricing than their sportsbook and Kalshi, winding up at around 8% on average compared to 4.28% for their sportsbook.
This simply highlights the volatility of prediction markets as a whole, which can often offer skewed odds on events due to public perception of certain markets that set the market autonomously.
Furthermore, the gap on Kalshi’s pricing for parlays was even more significant, averaging about 12-17% higher pricing than either sportsbook during the week.
This does not include the transaction fee associated with trading contracts on Kalshi.
While prediction markets have gained major traction both inside and out of sports betting, it is apparent that legal mobile sports betting sites still give players a competitive advantage when it comes to incurring profit.
