- Trustyourinstinct is the best bet at +750, and his jockey James McDonald won from barrier 18 on Verry Elleegant in 2021.
- Point Of Law is the +700 favorite after five career starts and has never raced the 3,200-meter Cup distance.
- Six of the last eight Cup winners drew double-digit barriers, and three of the last five carried 56.5 kilograms or more.
- Bjorn Baker’s four-race winner at +1000 is the smaller lean, a stayer who handles wet ground if Monday’s rain arrives.
MELBOURNE, Australia – The Melbourne Cup pick is Trustyourinstinct at +750, the Joseph O’Brien-trained stayer who drew barrier 18 of 24 for Tuesday’s 3,200-meter race at Flemington. Post time is 11 p.m. Eastern Monday, and the smaller lean is Bjorn Baker’s four-race winner at +1000.
Barrier 18 And 57 Kilograms Have Won Before
Only Sons And Lovers carries more than the 57 kilograms (126 pounds) on Trustyourinstinct’s back, and gate 18 puts him wide in Australia’s biggest horse betting race. The Victoria Racing Club confirmed the 24-runner field after Saturday’s draw, with O’Brien, a two-time Cup winner with Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020, saddling five. Neither the weight nor the barrier is the handicap it looks like.
Six of the last eight Cup winners came out of double-digit barriers. In 2021, James McDonald took Verry Elleegant from barrier 18 under 57 kilograms, the first time that gate had produced a winner in 161 runnings.
Gold Trip carried 57.5 kilograms in 2022 and Without A Fight carried 56.5 in 2023, so three of the last five winners shouldered a heavy load in a race where the handicapper assigns weights to even out the field. The past two winners carried 51.5 and 53 kilograms, so the heavy-weight run is a trend, not a rule.
Trustyourinstinct is priced behind the favorite at +750 even though the draw and the weight, the usual reasons to doubt him, have not stopped a recent winner.
The Board Is Three Deep At The Top
Unlike the game lines on a legal sports betting slate, the Cup board works like a futures market. Eleven of the 24 runners are +2200 or shorter, and none is shorter than +700, so the race is open enough that the price matters more than the name. Prices below are converted from Australian decimal odds.
9
- Horse
- Point Of Law
- Odds
- +700
- Break-even
- 12.5%
- Weight (kg)
- 53
- Jockey
- Ethan Brown
18
- Horse
- Trustyourinstinct
- Odds
- +750
- Break-even
- 11.8%
- Weight (kg)
- 57
- Jockey
- James McDonald
15
- Horse
- Hopewell Rock
- Odds
- +750
- Break-even
- 11.8%
- Weight (kg)
- 54.5
- Jockey
- Zac Lloyd
17
- Horse
- Shockletz
- Odds
- +900
- Break-even
- 10.0%
- Weight (kg)
- 51
- Jockey
- Harry Coffey
7
- Horse
- So You Are
- Odds
- +1000
- Break-even
- 9.1%
- Weight (kg)
- 54
- Jockey
- Rachel King
14
- Horse
- Juja Kibo
- Odds
- +1200
- Break-even
- 7.7%
- Weight (kg)
- 55
- Jockey
- Sam Clipperton
1
- Horse
- Middle Earth
- Odds
- +1600
- Break-even
- 5.9%
- Weight (kg)
- 56.5
- Jockey
- Mark Zahra
24
- Horse
- James J Braddock
- Odds
- +1700
- Break-even
- 5.6%
- Weight (kg)
- 53.5
- Jockey
- Craig Williams
Hopewell Rock is the same price as Trustyourinstinct and 2.5 kilograms lighter, but ABC’s form guide points out that 3,200 meters is new ground for him. His two best runs came in English handicaps, a win at Goodwood and a narrow second in the Ebor at York.
Shockletz at +900 carries the field’s lowest weight, with Harry Coffey passed fit Monday after a Saturday fall that broke his collarbone, yet ABC’s form guide notes that “of the 50 mares to run in the Cup since 2005,” only three have finished in the top three.
Point Of Law Is Favored On Potential, Not Stamina
Point Of Law raced for King Charles III before Ciaron Maher bought him in August, and his Australian debut, a half-length win over Small Fry in the Group 3 Geelong Cup on Oct. 21, was only his fifth start. At +700 he needs to win 12.5 percent of the time, and the case rests on a trip he has not run. The farthest start on his record is the 2,847-meter Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, where he was fourth, 353 meters short of Tuesday’s distance.
Maher said after the Geelong Cup that the colt “looks like he’ll run two-mile,” and jockey Ethan Brown said he would go to the Cup “as a huge chance.” The handicapper added 2 kilograms for the Geelong win, so he carries 53 kilograms (117 pounds). A five-start horse trying a Group 1 two-mile at the shortest price on the board is a stamina guess, and barrier 9 earns no extra credit when double-digit barriers supplied most of the recent winners.
The Best Bet Is Trustyourinstinct
Trustyourinstinct circled the field from last to take the Curragh Cup, a Group 2 over 2,816 meters, on July 19, then ran fourth of seven behind Scandinavia in the Group 1 Irish St Leger on Sept. 13. Group races in Ireland outrank Hopewell Rock’s handicap form, and the two horses share the same +750, where he needs to win 11.8 percent of the time.
ABC’s form guide describes a horse who does his best work late, after a patient ride, and the shape of the race supports that. Point Of Law settled outside the leader in the Geelong Cup, and Baker’s horse likes to lead, so the front end should not lack speed.
The risks are real. Trustyourinstinct lost the Irish St Leger, 57 kilograms is 4 more than the favorite carries, and a horse finishing from the back of the field needs the traffic to open. At +750 the price carries those risks along with the record behind him, a trainer with two Cup wins and a jockey who won from this barrier in 2021.
The Smaller Lean Is So You Are
Baker’s horse has won four straight since early September. A Listed win at Randwick on Sept. 5 started the run, the Colin Stephen Quality over 2,400 meters and the ATC St Leger over 2,600 followed, and the Bendigo Cup on Oct. 28 made it four. He carries 54 kilograms (119 pounds) from barrier 7, and ABC’s form guide expects Rachel King to ride him forward and rates him a wet-track horse. At +1000 he needs to win 9.1 percent of the time.
The case against him is a short list. Three of the four wins came in Group 3 races, the farthest was 2,600 meters, and the Bendigo Cup leaves only six days between runs.
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast 3 to 15 millimeters of rain for Melbourne on Monday, with a possible shower Tuesday morning, so the Flemington track rating at post time decides how much his wet-ground form is worth.
