- Kansas City is just a two-point home favorite over Denver despite Mahomes’ 7-0 record against the Broncos at Arrowhead.
- Mahomes’ passing-yards prop sits at 220.5, well below the 242.4 net yards per game he averaged across 14 starts last season.
- His touchdown-pass line sits at 1.5, with the Under favored at -150, reflecting an offense built around a heavier run game.
- No defense has more sacks since the start of 2024 than Denver’s 131, and Kansas City is missing its starting left tackle.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Patrick Mahomes returns Monday night for his first start since the knee injury that ended his season Dec. 14, and the Kansas City Chiefs open the year by hosting the Denver Broncos. Kansas City is only a two-point favorite at home, thin behind a quarterback who is 7-0 against Denver at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Comeback
The damage was a torn ACL and LCL in the left knee, suffered late in a Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Surgery came a day later in Dallas, where Dr. Dan Cooper, head team physician for the Cowboys, repaired both ligaments.
Mahomes carried a full practice workload in camp but never saw an exhibition snap, a precaution Kansas City kept through the entire preseason. He carries no injury designation into Monday night after a full week of practice, the first real test of a knee that has had nine months to heal.
The Number
A two-point home line behind a quarterback Denver has never beaten at Arrowhead is thin, and two problems explain it. Josh Simmons, the starting left tackle, sits out with a back injury, and no defense has piled up more sacks across the 2024 and 2025 seasons than Denver’s 131.
Part of that production is gone, with edge rusher Jonathon Cooper away from the team on the league’s commissioner exempt list. Nik Bonitto, who led Denver in sacks both seasons, remains the primary threat off the edge, and the short number is NFL betting sites pricing what that rush can do to a quarterback nine months removed from surgery, not a talent gap with Denver.
Patrick Mahomes Props, MNF Betting Lines
Bovada has Mahomes’ passing-yardage line at 220.5 and his touchdown-pass line at 1.5, and the yardage number has fallen through the week as the market leaned toward caution.
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas City | -135 |
| Moneyline | Denver | +115 |
| Spread | Kansas City -2 | -115 |
| Spread | Denver +2 | -105 |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -105 |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -115 |
| Mahomes passing yards | Over 220.5 | -115 |
| Mahomes passing yards | Under 220.5 | -115 |
| Mahomes passing TDs | Over 1.5 | +115 |
| Mahomes passing TDs | Under 1.5 | -150 |
Across his 14 starts last season, Mahomes averaged 242.4 net passing yards, comfortably above the 220.5 line. Kansas City spent the offseason building a deeper run game, and that shift points toward fewer dropbacks in a season-opening script than he carried a year ago.
The Under is favored at -150 on the 1.5-touchdown line for the same reason. A run-leaning game plan, paired with a shorthanded protection unit facing one of the league’s more productive pass-rushing fronts, caps the ceiling on a multi-touchdown night even for a healthy Mahomes. The game closes Week 1 as its lone Monday matchup, with lines posted across legal sports betting sites.
Mahomes was cleared for full camp in late July, seven months into a recovery that now stands at nine. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. Eastern, the first game of a season Kansas City enters off a 6-11 year, the first losing record of Andy Reid’s 13 seasons as its coach.
