Updated NBA MVP Odds: Injuries Cause Major Shakeup

Written By:

Drew Gniadek

Published On:

February 25, 2026 10:59 AM

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  • The NBA MVP odds for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have him as the current favorite (-130) but he has missed the past seven games with an abdominal injury that he has yet to return from.
  • Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, and Luka Doncic are all on the edge of disqualification due to games missed.
  • Cade Cunningham (+500) and Jaylen Brown (+3500) have both missed just six games this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY, Okla – The final push in the MVP race is beginning to take shape in the back half of the 2026 NBA season and it’s as open as it has ever been. Here are the players with the shortest odds to take home the award this season.

Current 2026 NBA MVP Odds

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -130
  • Nikola Jokic +275
  • Cade Cunningham +500
  • Victor Wembanyama +2500
  • Jaylen Brown +3500
  • Luka Doncic +4500

Legal sports betting sites have the reigning league MVP as the clear favorite to repeat this season, but that title could be in jeopardy due to injury concerns.

So far, SGA has missed ten games this season, seven of which are by way of an abdominal injury which has sidelined him since February 4th, meaning he cannot miss more than seven games in order to be eligible for the award.

When he has played, OKC’s star guard has averaged 31.8 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game while shooting a career best 55.4% from the field and 39% from three.

There is optimism that Gilgeous-Alexander could return within the next few games, but there is still a risk factor involved with a soft tissue injury like the one he has sustained.

Nikola Jokic is second in MVP odds, but has also dealt with significant injuries over the course of the season, missing 16 consecutive games with a hyperextended knee suffered at the end of December.

The three-time MVP can only afford to miss one more game in order to qualify for MVP voting due to the league’s 65 game rule.

Jokic has averaged 28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game while shooting 58.4% from the field and 42.1% from deep, seeking his second consecutive season averaging a triple double.

New Faces In The MVP Race

Outside of the clear top two, Cade Cunningham is sitting comfortably with the third best MVP odds at +500 on NBA betting sites.

Cunningham has averaged 25.3 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game while leading the Pistons to the best record in the East, missing just six games to this point of the season.

Victor Wembanyama slots in the four spot, averaging 24.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists to go along with 1 steal and 2.8 blocks per game, which leads the league by a wide margin.

However, the Frenchman is teetering on the edge of disqualification as well, having already missed 14 games this season, meaning he can miss three more games at most.

Jaylen Brown is next on the list with +3500 odds, averaging a career best 29.2 points per game, tacking on 7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game in the absence of Jayson Tatum.

Brown has led the Celtics to the second best record in the East to this point, a feat that many did not think would be possible. He’s missed just six games this season, so he is comfortably below the threshold for games missed.

Rounding out the top six is Luka Doncic, who is leading the league with 32.5 points per game while also averaging 8.6 assists and 7.8 rebounds.

It will be an uphill battle for Doncic, however, as the Lakers are the only team of the top six candidates to currently be sitting lower than a top four seed in their conference.

He has also missed 12 games, meaning he can miss no more than five of the team’s last 25 games.

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Ben Fiore

Drew Gniadek

Drew is currently a student at Florida State University, originally from Massachusetts. He has a background playing basketball, including both for the high school varsity team and pool basketball with his friends. Drew is a die-hard Celtics fan and also enjoys football and baseball.