Ole Miss Favored at Home Despite Kentucky Edge at QB

Despite entering the game as a higher-ranked team, the Kentucky Wildcats are seven-point underdogs versus the Ole Miss Rebels.
Betting on Kentucky to at least cover the spread and maybe even win outright may be a strong bet considering the edge at quarterback and recent trends pointing to the Wildcats.

OXFORD, Miss. – Mark Stoops and Will Levis lead the seventh-ranked Kentucky Wildcats into The Grove as betting underdogs when they face Lane Kiffin and his 14th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels squad.

College football betting sites have Ole Miss as a touchdown favorite versus the Wildcats, despite Kentucky entering the game as the higher-ranked team.

Kentucky Wildcats at Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Kentucky	+7.0 (-115)	+220	O 54 (-110)
Ole Miss	-7.0 (-105)	-270	U 54.0 (-110)

Betting On Kentucky To Cover The Spread

College football results are largely dependent on which team is the home team, but making Kentucky a seven-point underdog on the road against a team that is lower ranked than them may be a bit of an overreaction.

That overreaction is made obvious by the fact that Lane Kiffin does not think that highly of the home crowd cheers on his school.

“When you come back out, run out of the tunnel and it looks like a high school game, you can’t let that affect you. I’ve tried social media for two years but I’ll worry about what I can control”

More from #OleMiss HC Lane Kiffin on fans leaving Saturday’s Ole Miss game early: pic.twitter.com/s7dl92OlWL

— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) September 27, 2022

Lane Kiffin has had a lot of success against Kentucky in his career, going 2-0 against the Wildcats dating back to his single season as the Tennessee Volunteers head coach, but Kentucky has a clear edge at quarterback that may be too much to overcome. Ole Miss just settled their quarterback competition following their narrow 35-27 victory over Tulsa, with season-long statistics pointing toward Kentucky having an advantage at the most important position in sports:

Will Levis (Kentucky): 79/117 Passing this season, 1,185 Yards, 10 Touchdowns, 4 Interceptions
Jackson Dart (Ole Miss): 51/82 Passing this season, 697 Yards, 5 Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions

Jackson Dart has protected the ball at a better rate, but that is because he has not been pushing the ball through the air. Darts’ 8.5 yards per attempt this season pales in comparison to Levis’s 10.1 yards per attempt.

On top of the quarterback advantage, other key trends point toward Kentucky at least covering the spread at legal sports betting sites and maybe even winning outright:

Ole Miss wins, but doesn’t cover under Kiffin: Lane Kiffin is now in his third year at Ole Miss. Over that time, Ole Miss is 11-0 as a home favorite and 12-3 overall at home. Against the spread they have been exactly average: 7-7-1 as the home team, 5-5-1 as a home favorite, and 2-2 as a home underdog.
Kentucky on a tear: The Wildcats are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven, going 3-0-1 ats this season. They covered and won outright in their matchup against the Florida Gators this season despite entering the game as a six-point underdog in Gainesville.
Return of Christopher Rodriguez: This will be the first week of the season that Christopher Rodriguez plays for Kentucky. He was suspended for the start of the season, and can now begin his season. Rodriguez ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns versus Ole Miss in his lone matchup versus the team.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.