Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid

  • Joel Embiid is the betting favorite to win the 2022 NBA MVP.
  • Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are also in the running.
  • Betting odds for NBA MVP are very different amongst sportsbooks.

PHILADELPHIA – As the NBA season dwindles down to the remaining 15 games per team, the NBA MVP award has been the topic of conversation more than in recent years.

Joel Embiid is the favorite, though reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is just behind. Across the legal sports betting sites, the NBA MVP odds are drastically different, allowing for action on both sides to secure a profit.

At this point in the season, an NBA prop bet on either Embiid or Jokic to win MVP would sit well above -10000 odds – “a lock” to the square bettor.

With potentially Giannis Antetokounmpo as the dark horse, most NBA fans would still argue an Embiid vs. Jokic discussion. Still, the NBA MVP stats are comparable.

Potential 2022 NBA MVPs – Stats Per Game

Player Mins Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk eFG%
Joel Embiid 33.1 29.7 11.2 4.3 1.1 1.4 .523
Nikola Jokic 33.2 26.1 13.9 8.1 1.4 0.8 .614
Giannis Antetokounmpo 32.8 29.7 11.5 6.0 1.1 1.4 .581

Probasketballreference grades Jokic as 41.1% probability of winning the award, while Giannis sits at 29.5% and Embiid is less than 10 (9.8%).

Despite being third on their ranking, the MVP odds for Embiid have him as the favorite anywhere from -120 to -175.

NBA MVP Odds At Online Sportsbooks

Player Bovada BetMGM BetOnline BetUS DraftKings FanDuel MyBookie
Joel Embiid -140 -125 -120 -125 -145 -130 -170
Nikola Jokic +150 +145 +125 +135 +170 +140 +115

Finding The Best NBA MVP Betting Value

The NBA MVP odds at BetOnline are best for betting on Embiid. At -120 odds, one could risk $500 for a $416.67 profit. This same bet at MyBookie leads to a payout of only $294.12 plus the original action.

If looking to bet on Jokic to win the MVP award, DraftKings takes the cake as the best odds. However, DraftKings is regulated in only 20 states with sports betting. For those outside of a DraftKings Sportsbook district, the next best option would be Bovada at +150.

The same $500 action would pay out $750 at Bovada ($850 at DraftKings), which is still much better than the $575 possibility at MyBookie.

Arbitrage Betting The MVP Award

In some cases, arbitrage betting helps one secure a profit if the situation is present. When line shopping the NBA MVP odds, the situation arises, leading to a guaranteed profit (assuming either Embiid or Jokic win the award).

In all cases, the underdog NBA MVP odds for Jokic have a larger absolute value than the favored odds for Embiid, except for MyBookie. This means that betting on both players at any sportsbook can lead to a profit. While the win will be negligible, it could be a decent play for the more conservative bettor.

However, keep in mind this locks up a bankroll until the NBA MVP is announced in the summer bringing some difficulty to a bankroll if betting on March Madness.

Instead of placing the bets at the same book, shopping NBA MVP lines across two legal sportsbooks allows for a much greater benefit.

Bets To Take On The 2022 MVP

  • Joel Embiid At BetOnline -120
  • Nikola Jokic At Bovada +150

Because Embiid is the favorite, the amount bet will generally be higher, but the numbers can always be adjusted.

Potential Payouts Arbitrage Betting The MVP

Leaning Embiid

  • $300 bet on Embiid (-120) = $250
  • $200 bet on Jokic (+150) = $300

This bet on Embiid would result in a $50 profit if Embiid wins and all money back if Jokic wins. While $50 isn’t anything to write home about when it comes to $500 being bet, the 10% return would occur in a few months’ time. However, one could also see it as someone is betting -1000 odds that Embiid wins MVP or their money back.

Leaning Jokic

  • $273 bet on Embiid (-120) = $227.5
  • $227 bet on Jokic (+150) = $340.5

This bet on Jokic would result in a $67.5 profit if Jokic wins and a 50-cent addition if Embiid wins. The $67.5 is a 13.5% increase from the $500 bet – the equivalent of betting -740 odds on Jokic to win MVP or a half-dollar bonus.

Fluctuation can easily happen between these two posts or on the outside of it as well. A move on the inside (betting between $273 and $300 on Embiid) would balance out the payouts. If one was completely unsure, they could find the middle and secure the same profit regardless of who wins.

Unsure Of Winner

  • $288 bet on Embiid (-120) = $240
  • $212 bet on Jokic (+150) = $318

On this bet, a profit of $30 (Embiid) or $28 (Jokic) would be won depending on the MVP selection. Regardless, at roughly a 5.8% return, one is betting -1725 odds on either Jokic or Embiid to be named MVP.

Once these two bets are placed – no matter the angle taken – waiting becomes the only thing in the way of collecting a profit… unless Giannis makes a late run, of course!

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