- Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs opens at +550, the shortest price on the NFL Offensive Player of the Year board.
- Chase produced more total expected points added in 2025 than Gibbs and Robinson combined, yet he is priced third at +1000.
- Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey round out the top six, each priced at 14-to-1 or longer.
- The March trade that sent David Montgomery to Houston handed the Lions backfield to Gibbs alone.
CINCINNATI – Ja’Marr Chase opens the season as the third choice on the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year odds board, priced behind Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson even though he produced more total expected points added in 2025 than the two of them combined.
The Early Board
The board already prices six players at 20-to-1 or shorter ahead of Thursday’s season opener. Two running backs sit on top of it.
Jahmyr Gibbs
- Team
- Lions
- Odds
- +550
- Implies
- About 15%
Bijan Robinson
- Team
- Falcons
- Odds
- +900
- Implies
- About 10%
Ja’Marr Chase
- Team
- Bengals
- Odds
- +1000
- Implies
- About 9%
Puka Nacua
- Team
- Rams
- Odds
- +1400
- Implies
- About 7%
Justin Jefferson
- Team
- Vikings
- Odds
- +1500
- Implies
- About 6%
Christian McCaffrey
- Team
- 49ers
- Odds
- +2000
- Implies
- About 5%
Gibbs and Robinson finished 2025 as two of the sport’s highest-scoring fantasy backs, Robinson at 370.8 PPR points and Gibbs at 366.9, the kind of counting-stat total that has driven this award’s voting for years. Neither back was efficient doing it.
Chase’s Value Case
In expected points added, the measure of how many points a player’s touches were worth beyond a league-average result on the same plays, Chase added 41.4 over the season through Cincinnati’s passing game. Gibbs added 15.1 combining his rushing and receiving work, and Robinson added 14.3 doing the same for Atlanta. Chase’s number alone beat their two combined.
Both backs were negative as rushers by the same measure, Gibbs at -2.7 and Robinson at -12.3, with every bit of their positive value coming through the passing game instead. Chase drew 30% of Cincinnati’s targets and a third of its air yards in 2025, more concentrated usage than either back saw carrying the ball.
A voting body that rewards yardage and touchdown totals over per-play value is the reason the board reads the way it does, not a gap in what Chase is doing on the field.
Why The Backs Lead Anyway
Detroit traded David Montgomery to the Houston Texans in March for a lineman and two draft picks, removing the closest thing Gibbs had to a committee partner in the backfield. Detroit also made Gibbs the NFL’s highest-paid running back this summer, a bet on the same larger workload the trade set up.
Robinson’s price tells a similar story. Atlanta leaned on him as a receiver as well as a runner in 2025, and his production came on volume his rushing efficiency alone did not support. The board is pricing both backs on how many times they touch the ball, not on what each touch was worth.
The Names Behind Them
Nacua, Jefferson and McCaffrey fill out the top six on legal sports betting boards, each at 14-to-1 or longer. All three are pass-catchers whose case depends on volume and quarterback play rather than a backfield handed to them outright, the same trade-off that separates Chase’s number from the two backs ahead of him.
The board resets once games count, and Thursday’s opening slate gives the market its first real evidence since training camp.
