- Google CEO’s post on X attracted lots of attention to the release of Gemini 3, which has garnered over $7 million in bets on Polymarket.
- Kalshi’s injunction in Nevada likely to be overturned, facing opposition from multiple other states as well.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. – In the prediction market world, Kalshi continues to fight legal battles across the country.
Though they were granted a preliminary injunction against Nevada sports betting laws, it is looking more and more likely for the ruling to be overturned.
Judge Andrew Gordon of the US District Court of Nevada initially granted the injunction, but has since denied Crypto.com the same ruling. He has expressed doubt about the legality of trading sports events.
“Nobody thought sports bets were commodities or excluded commodities or swaps until some brilliant people at Kalshi,” said Gordon.
Kalshi has maintained that their markets follow federal laws and are backed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, distinguishing them from traditional legal sports betting across the US and allowing them to operate independently from local betting regulations.
They are also facing opposition from multiple other states with legal sports betting, putting the future of the prediction market platform in jeopardy.
Google CEO And Influence Affecting Markets
In other news, there has been plenty of speculation around the release of Gemini 3 in recent days, Google’s newest artificial intelligence model, which has led to an increased amount of betting traffic.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has taken notice, responding to a post on X referencing a 69% market favorability for the newest model to be released on November 22nd.
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
This brings up some major questions about the legality, or integrity at the very least, of these markets and the ability for them to be manipulated.
While the post itself does not explicitly state any information that bettors were not already privy to, Pichai stirred up more anticipation around the release while indirectly promoting the prediction market site on the same day that the market for Gemini 3 went public.
Polymarket operates separately from traditional legal sports betting sites, offering odds on a variety of events similar to stocks, which can be bought and sold in shares.
In his initial post made on November 14th, $803,184 was placed on the AI model to be released on November 22nd, making up 69% of the wagers in the market. This means, the total amount of money invested, including wagers on other dates, was around $1.16 million.
Today, the total amount of money in the market has skyrocketed to $7.2 million, just four days later. Additionally, it is looking increasingly likely for Gemini 3 to release today, as about 90% of investments are currently on a November 18th release.
