- Patrick Mahomes has +105 odds to record over 2.5 passing touchdowns Sunday night.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have an over-under of 29.5 points.
- The Chiefs have the highest pass rate inside the 10-yard line this season.
- Mahomes has thrown for 3+ touchdown passes in all four games this season
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Just doing some simple math will have sports bettors salivating at Patrick Mahomes’ touchdown prop this Sunday night.
With projections for the Kansas Chiefs to score 29.5 points against the Bills, this is essentially four touchdowns to account for.
Despite the high implied team total, NFL sportsbooks have listed Mahomes at +105 odds to record over 2.5 passing touchdowns.
Therefore, a bet on Mahomes to go over 2.5 passing touchdowns is essentially a bet against the Chiefs rushing offense in the red zone. Fortunately, that has been a profitable side to be on this year.
The Chiefs have a 58% passing rate inside the red zone this season that ranks among the top 6 teams in the league. While Mahomes himself could always opt to rush one or two in the endzone himself, value remains on the over 2.5 passing touchdowns.
Oddsmakers have given this game a healthy total of 56.5, which bodes well for Mahomes having multiple chances to complete more than 2.5 passing touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns, averaging over 3.5 a game.
This line appears to be too low, given what legal betting sites have seen out of the Chiefs offense this season.
While the Bills defense has looked good on paper, it is fair to point out that they have faced four anemic offenses. Sunday Night Football will be a true test, as sports bettors can sit back and watch Mahomes and Josh Allen duel it out.
Zach is a writer that specializes his content around the DFS and prop betting market. He just recently received his Bachelor’s degree in Sports Management at Florida State University, and is excited to start writing for the LSB community. Zach has an extensive DFS background, having won several MME tournaments on DraftKings. When he is not grinding DFS lineups, you can find Zach relaxing at the beach or throwing darts on the golf course.