- The Rays are -135 in Game 1, the Yankees are +113, and the total is 7.
- In 11 career games against the Yankees, Drew Rasmussen has gone 5-2 with an ERA of 1.81 and a WHIP of 0.86.
- New York has not named a starter, though Gerrit Cole, who allowed 22 home runs in 127 innings, is lined up.
- The Yankees won four of the last five meetings, though the Rays took the season series 7-6.
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The Tampa Bay Rays are favored across the board for Yankees-Rays ALDS Game 1 at 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday on TBS, where Drew Rasmussen, owner of a 1.81 career ERA against the New York Yankees, starts at Tropicana Field.
Rasmussen Has Handled New York, Except Once
Rasmussen finished 16-5 and posted a 2.67 ERA. His WHIP (0.91) and his 5.44 strikeouts per walk (174 strikeouts, 32 walks in 172 innings) both ranked first in the American League. The same preview credits him with the 1.81 ERA against the Yankees across 10 career starts and one relief appearance. The 2026 sample is smaller and less flattering: four starts, 22 innings, seven earned runs (a 2.86 ERA), 26 strikeouts and four walks.
Six of those seven earned runs came July 9 at Tropicana Field, when he allowed seven hits and six runs in 2.1 innings of a 12-4 Yankees win. In his other three starts he allowed one earned run over 19.2 innings. That included 6.2 innings with one hit and 11 strikeouts in the 6-1 game that clinched the AL East on Sept. 22.
Baseball Savant’s expected wOBA against Rasmussen is .271, far under the .320 league norm, so the contact he allows is elite. His actual wOBA against runs 28 points below that figure, which puts the 2.67 ERA slightly ahead of the contact quality and makes the 1.81 career mark against New York a read built on only 11 games.
New York Still Has To Choose Between Cole And Rodón
Cole is “lined up for” the opener, manager Aaron Boone said. His turn was due Thursday in a Wild Card Series Game 3 that New York’s sweep of the Boston Red Sox made unnecessary. Rodón remains in play.
Cole is 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA, and his .300 expected wOBA against matches his actual results, so there is no luck cushion in the line.
The risk is the long ball. His 22 home runs in 127 innings work out to 1.56 per nine, and nine of them came in 28.1 innings across five September starts that produced a 5.08 ERA. His three starts against Tampa Bay this season covered 18 innings with five earned runs, a 2.50 ERA, including 5.2 innings and two earned runs in a 9-2 win Sept. 23.
Rodón is 7-3 with a 2.67 ERA over 16 starts and arrives with the better recent form. He blanked the Rays for eight innings on Sept. 22 and carried a 1.42 ERA through his four September starts. His .304 expected wOBA against sits 50 points above his actual figure, the widest gap of the three starters, so the ERA is running well ahead of the contact he allows.
Tropicana Field carries a 97 wOBA park factor on Baseball Savant, where 100 is neutral, and Tampa Bay hit 169 home runs this season, 54 fewer than New York’s 223. Cole’s home-run problem meets a lineup built more on contact (.258 team average) than power, in a park that trims offense.
Rays Favored Even With The Yankees Ahead In Pennant Odds
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Rays Game 1 moneyline | -135 | 57.4% |
| Yankees Game 1 moneyline | +113 | 46.9% |
| Yankees AL pennant | +175 | 36.4% |
| Rays AL pennant | +230 | 30.3% |
On legal MLB betting sites, the market ranks New York higher across the whole bracket while making Tampa Bay the Game 1 favorite. The Rays went 55-26 at home this season and won five of the seven games they hosted against the Yankees. The Game 1 pair, the Rays at -135 and the Yankees at +113, carries a combined margin of 4.4 points, so the starter question outweighs the vig.
Judge Remains The Open Bat
The Yankees scored 18 runs in their 9-0 and 9-2 Wild Card Series wins over Boston without Aaron Judge, who is sidelined by a strained right calf. Judge hit against live pitching Wednesday, but he had not resumed running the bases, MLB.com reported. His status is the largest open item on the legal sports betting board before the series moves to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
The Rays finished 98-64 and the Yankees 93-68 in the regular season.
